COIN Coinbase Global WATCHLIST
15 inbound impacts
from 1 source company
in last 180 days
5
Bullish impacts
7
Bearish impacts
3
Neutral impacts
5
Max significance
12
High-magnitude
Historical Base Rates for COIN
From prior setups in our DB. Returns are simple price (entry next-day open → close at horizon). Alpha is excess vs benchmark.
| Horizon | N | Hit % | Avg ret | Median ret | α vs SPY | α vs QQQ | α vs SOXX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d | 27 | 63.0% | +6.19% | +4.26% | +5.79% | +5.24% | +4.11% |
| 20d | 27 | 59.3% | +9.92% | +25.48% | +9.27% | +8.36% | +7.48% |
| 60d | 19 | 63.2% | +7.38% | +7.84% | +0.96% | -1.12% | -14.11% |
Top Live Signals affecting COIN
| Score | Date | Source | Type | Cat | Dir | Conf | Mag | Horiz | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 2026-02-12 | COIN | 10-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Buried in the XBRL taxonomy tags is evidence of a massive acquisition: Sentillia B.V., the parent company of Deribit, closed around August 14, 2025. Deribit is the undisputed global leader in crypto o…
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| 61 | 2026-02-12 | COIN | 10-K | Future Bet | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Coinbase is aggressively pivoting from a pure-play crypto exchange to a universal financial super-app. By launching traditional equities, commodity futures, and prediction markets via introducing brok…
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| 61 | 2026-02-12 | COIN | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Buried in the list of operating exchanges is Deribit. Deribit is the undisputed global monopoly in crypto options trading. Stating that they 'operate' the Deribit Exchange indicates Coinbase has quiet…
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| 61 | 2026-02-12 | COIN | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
A dismissal 'with prejudice' means the SEC cannot refile these charges. This represents a definitive, total legal victory for Coinbase, permanently removing the existential regulatory overhang that ha…
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| 61 | 2026-02-12 | COIN | 10-K | Future Bet | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Coinbase quietly acquired Deribit, the world's undisputed leader in crypto options, in August 2025. This is a monumental strategic bet on the institutionalization of crypto derivatives. By bringing De…
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| 61 | 2026-02-12 | COIN | 10-K | Language Shift | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
The document confirms a regime change at the SEC, with Chairman Paul Atkins replacing Gary Gensler. Atkins' public stance that 'most crypto assets are not securities' marks the definitive end of the S…
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| 61 | 2026-02-12 | COIN | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
The passage of the GENIUS Act establishes a definitive federal framework for payment stablecoins in the U.S., removing the existential legal overhang on USDC. Coinbase, as a primary distributor and ec…
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| 61 | 2026-02-12 | COIN | 10-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Coinbase has acquired Deribit, the undisputed global market leader in crypto options. This represents a massive deployment of capital to capture the institutional derivatives market, shifting Coinbase…
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| 29 | 2026-04-10 | COIN | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Paul Clement is a former U.S. Solicitor General and one of the nation's premier Supreme Court litigators. His original appointment to the board was a 'wartime' move, equipping Coinbase with top-tier a…
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| 14 | 2025-10-30 | COIN | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Coinbase closed its $4.3B Deribit acquisition — largest crypto M&A ever. Transforms from predominantly spot exchange into full-stack derivatives platform. $2.8B in goodwill, $1.06B customer relationsh…
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All Inbound Impacts (15)
Every signal pointing at COIN from another company's filings.
| Date | From | Filing | Cat | Dir | Conf | Mag | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | COIN | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Paul Clement is a former U.S. Solicitor General and one of the nation's premier Supreme Court litigators. His original appointment to the board was a 'wartime' move, equipping Coinbase with top-tier a…
|
| 2026-02-12 | COIN | 10-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Buried in the XBRL taxonomy tags is evidence of a massive acquisition: Sentillia B.V., the parent company of Deribit, closed around August 14, 2025. Deribit is the undisputed global leader in crypto o…
|
| 2026-02-12 | COIN | 10-K | Future Bet | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Coinbase is aggressively pivoting from a pure-play crypto exchange to a universal financial super-app. By launching traditional equities, commodity futures, and prediction markets via introducing brok…
|
| 2026-02-12 | COIN | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Buried in the list of operating exchanges is Deribit. Deribit is the undisputed global monopoly in crypto options trading. Stating that they 'operate' the Deribit Exchange indicates Coinbase has quiet…
|
| 2026-02-12 | COIN | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
A dismissal 'with prejudice' means the SEC cannot refile these charges. This represents a definitive, total legal victory for Coinbase, permanently removing the existential regulatory overhang that ha…
|
| 2026-02-12 | COIN | 10-K | Future Bet | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Coinbase quietly acquired Deribit, the world's undisputed leader in crypto options, in August 2025. This is a monumental strategic bet on the institutionalization of crypto derivatives. By bringing De…
|
| 2026-02-12 | COIN | 10-K | Language Shift | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
The document confirms a regime change at the SEC, with Chairman Paul Atkins replacing Gary Gensler. Atkins' public stance that 'most crypto assets are not securities' marks the definitive end of the S…
|
| 2026-02-12 | COIN | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
The passage of the GENIUS Act establishes a definitive federal framework for payment stablecoins in the U.S., removing the existential legal overhang on USDC. Coinbase, as a primary distributor and ec…
|
| 2026-02-12 | COIN | 10-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Coinbase has acquired Deribit, the undisputed global market leader in crypto options. This represents a massive deployment of capital to capture the institutional derivatives market, shifting Coinbase…
|
| 2025-12-16 | COIN | 8-K | Strategic Shift | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Coinbase reincorporated from Delaware to Texas. Texas corporate law gives boards more protection from shareholder lawsuits. Part of accelerating corporate exodus from Delaware.
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| 2025-10-30 | COIN | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Coinbase closed its $4.3B Deribit acquisition — largest crypto M&A ever. Transforms from predominantly spot exchange into full-stack derivatives platform. $2.8B in goodwill, $1.06B customer relationsh…
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| 2025-10-30 | COIN | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Coinbase more than doubled its Bitcoin treasury to 14,548 units. Crypto investment purchases exploded from $18M to $680M. Fundamental shift to active corporate Bitcoin accumulation strategy, echoing M…
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| 2025-10-30 | COIN | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
USDC held on balance sheet nearly tripled to $3.70B. Stablecoin revenue hit $355M/quarter (~20% of net revenue, growing 44% YoY). Extreme concentration risk with Circle as single counterparty >10% of …
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| 2025-10-30 | COIN | 10-Q | Wildcard | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
SEC lawsuit dismissed with prejudice — cannot be refiled. Five state regulators also dropped actions. Complete regulatory capitulation that fundamentally de-risks the business model.
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| 2025-10-30 | COIN | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
International revenue doubled to $350M, reflecting Deribit contribution plus MiCA licensing. Institutional transaction revenue surged 144%. Share from non-US markets inflecting from 14% to 19% of tota…
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Outbound Impacts — COIN's filings affect these tickers
| Date | Filing | Target | Cat | Dir for target | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 8-K | HOOD | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-04-10 | 8-K | CME | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-04-10 | 8-K | IBKR | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-04-10 | 8-K | MARA | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 10-K | CME | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 10-K | HOOD | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 10-K | IBKR | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 10-K | VIRT | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 10-K | HOOD | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 10-K | SCHW | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 10-K | IBKR | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 10-K | CME | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 10-K | CME | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 10-K | CBOE | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 10-K | BLK | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 10-K | MSTR | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 10-K | HOOD | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 10-K | CME | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 10-K | CBOE | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 10-K | VIRT | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 10-K | IBKR | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 10-K | HOOD | Language Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 10-K | BLK | Language Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 10-K | SCHW | Language Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 10-K | BK | Language Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 10-K | PYPL | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 10-K | V | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 10-K | MA | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 10-K | WU | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 10-K | CME | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 10-K | CBOE | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 10-K | HOOD | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 10-K | IBKR | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-30 | 10-Q | BTC-USD | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-30 | 10-Q | ETH-USD | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-30 | 10-Q | BTC-USD | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-30 | 10-Q | MSTR | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-30 | 10-Q | BTC-USD | Wildcard | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-30 | 10-Q | ETH-USD | Wildcard | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
Catalysts
| Date | Type | Confidence | Source | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | earnings | confirmed | yfinance | Next earnings (per yfinance) |
| 2026-05-08 | earnings | confirmed | yfinance | Next earnings (per yfinance) |