IBM Off-watchlist — flagged by other companies' filings
16 inbound impacts
from 2 source companies
in last 180 days
0
Bullish impacts
0
Bearish impacts
16
Neutral impacts
5
Max significance
0
High-magnitude
Historical Base Rates for IBM
From prior setups in our DB. Returns are simple price (entry next-day open → close at horizon). Alpha is excess vs benchmark.
| Horizon | N | Hit % | Avg ret | Median ret | α vs SPY | α vs QQQ | α vs SOXX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d | 18 | 11.1% | -3.84% | -4.83% | -2.63% | -2.5% | -3.17% |
| 20d | 18 | 11.1% | -3.54% | -2.97% | -3.37% | -3.48% | -5.42% |
| 60d | 12 | 16.7% | -9.95% | -11.3% | -11.75% | -11.32% | -24.71% |
Top Live Signals affecting IBM
| Score | Date | Source | Type | Cat | Dir | Conf | Mag | Horiz | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 2026-02-11 | CFLT | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
IBM acquiring Confluent at $35.00/share in cash is the single most consequential event in this filing. It represents a strategic bet by IBM that data streaming infrastructure is critical to enterprise…
|
||
| 19 | 2026-02-11 | CFLT | 10-K | Future Bet | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Cloud crossing the majority-of-subscription threshold is the culmination of a multi-year platform shift. The trajectory from 50% to 54% in one year, accelerating from the prior pace, demonstrates that…
|
||
| 17 | 2026-03-17 | CFLT | 8-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
IBM-Confluent merger closed March 17, 2026. CFLT delisted from Nasdaq. IBM now owns the dominant Kafka-as-a-service platform, adding real-time streaming to HashiCorp and watsonx AI stack.
|
||
| 11 | 2026-03-17 | CFLT | 8-K | Wildcard | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
CRO resigned the day before closing — effective immediately, not after transition. Unusual for a key commercial leader in a strategic acquisition. Could signal disagreement with IBM's go-to-market pla…
|
||
| 11 | 2025-12-04 | CRM | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Buried in the subsequent events and debt XBRL tags is evidence of a major November 2025 transaction involving Informatica Inc. (INFA) supported by an unsecured line of credit. This strongly implies Sa…
|
||
| 11 | 2025-12-04 | CRM | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Salesforce is committing nearly $10 billion (funded largely by $6 billion in new debt) to acquire a foundational enterprise data management platform. This bet signals management's belief that owning t…
|
||
| 7 | 2025-10-27 | CFLT | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Operating cash flow turning positive at $22.2M for 9 months is the most important financial milestone in this filing. The company generated $24M more operating cash than the prior year period, despite…
|
||
| 7 | 2025-10-27 | CFLT | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
RPO grew from $1.016B in Q1 to $1.259B in Q3 -- a $243M increase in two quarters (24% sequential growth). The 58% near-term conversion rate implies ~$730M locked in for the next 12 months, providing e…
|
||
| 4 | 2025-10-27 | CFLT | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
A new $125M non-cancelable cloud infrastructure commitment through 2030 is a major signal about expected cloud consumption growth. Companies do not lock into 5-year infrastructure obligations unless t…
|
||
| 4 | 2025-10-27 | CFLT | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
International revenue grew 29% YoY and expanded from 39% to 42% of total revenue. This faster-than-domestic growth rate signals that Confluent's data streaming platform is gaining traction in markets …
|
All Inbound Impacts (16)
Every signal pointing at IBM from another company's filings.
| Date | From | Filing | Cat | Dir | Conf | Mag | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | CFLT | 8-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
IBM-Confluent merger closed March 17, 2026. CFLT delisted from Nasdaq. IBM now owns the dominant Kafka-as-a-service platform, adding real-time streaming to HashiCorp and watsonx AI stack.
|
||
| 2026-03-17 | CFLT | 8-K | Wildcard | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
CRO resigned the day before closing — effective immediately, not after transition. Unusual for a key commercial leader in a strategic acquisition. Could signal disagreement with IBM's go-to-market pla…
|
||
| 2026-02-12 | CFLT | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Stockholder vote passed 99.94% in favour. Negligible opposition. Removes final major condition besides foreign regulatory approvals.
|
||
| 2026-02-11 | CFLT | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
IBM acquiring Confluent at $35.00/share in cash is the single most consequential event in this filing. It represents a strategic bet by IBM that data streaming infrastructure is critical to enterprise…
|
||
| 2026-02-11 | CFLT | 10-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Cloud crossing the majority-of-subscription threshold is the culmination of a multi-year platform shift. The trajectory from 50% to 54% in one year, accelerating from the prior pace, demonstrates that…
|
||
| 2026-02-04 | CFLT | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Supplemental disclosures reveal Morgan Stanley valuation: 5.0x-8.0x 2028 EV/Rev, 12.5x-17.5x terminal FCF multiples. Management projects net cash growing from $890M to ~$1.5B by 2028. Deal at lower en…
|
||
| 2026-01-13 | CFLT | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
HSR antitrust waiting period expired without a second request. DOJ/FTC did not challenge the deal. Removes single largest US regulatory hurdle.
|
||
| 2025-12-08 | CFLT | 8-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
IBM acquiring Confluent for $31/share all-cash. IBM's second major data infrastructure acquisition after HashiCorp, building comprehensive data platform stack. Confluent's real-time data streaming bec…
|
||
| 2025-12-08 | CFLT | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Insiders controlling 62% of voting power committed to vote for the deal. Dual-class structure guarantees stockholder approval absent regulatory intervention.
|
||
| 2025-12-08 | CFLT | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
IBM retaining founder/CEO Jay Kreps with 30-month retention RSU package. Signals IBM views Confluent as strategic growth platform, not acqui-hire or cost-cutting play.
|
||
| 2025-12-04 | CRM | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Buried in the subsequent events and debt XBRL tags is evidence of a major November 2025 transaction involving Informatica Inc. (INFA) supported by an unsecured line of credit. This strongly implies Sa…
|
||
| 2025-12-04 | CRM | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Salesforce is committing nearly $10 billion (funded largely by $6 billion in new debt) to acquire a foundational enterprise data management platform. This bet signals management's belief that owning t…
|
||
| 2025-10-27 | CFLT | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Operating cash flow turning positive at $22.2M for 9 months is the most important financial milestone in this filing. The company generated $24M more operating cash than the prior year period, despite…
|
||
| 2025-10-27 | CFLT | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
RPO grew from $1.016B in Q1 to $1.259B in Q3 -- a $243M increase in two quarters (24% sequential growth). The 58% near-term conversion rate implies ~$730M locked in for the next 12 months, providing e…
|
||
| 2025-10-27 | CFLT | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
A new $125M non-cancelable cloud infrastructure commitment through 2030 is a major signal about expected cloud consumption growth. Companies do not lock into 5-year infrastructure obligations unless t…
|
||
| 2025-10-27 | CFLT | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
International revenue grew 29% YoY and expanded from 39% to 42% of total revenue. This faster-than-domestic growth rate signals that Confluent's data streaming platform is gaining traction in markets …
|
Catalysts
| Date | Type | Confidence | Source | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | earnings | confirmed | yfinance | Next earnings (per yfinance) |
| 2026-04-23 | earnings | confirmed | yfinance | Next earnings (per yfinance) |