CFLT Confluent Inc. WATCHLIST
17 inbound impacts
from 1 source company
in last 180 days
10
Bullish impacts
1
Bearish impacts
6
Neutral impacts
5
Max significance
5
High-magnitude
Historical Base Rates for CFLT
From prior setups in our DB. Returns are simple price (entry next-day open → close at horizon). Alpha is excess vs benchmark.
| Horizon | N | Hit % | Avg ret | Median ret | α vs SPY | α vs QQQ | α vs SOXX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d | 20 | 50.0% | -1.94% | +0.19% | -0.77% | -0.89% | -1.27% |
| 20d | 20 | 75.0% | +0.84% | +0.84% | +2.03% | +1.7% | +2.28% |
| 60d | 12 | 100.0% | +20.43% | +25.12% | +16.5% | +15.95% | +2.69% |
Top Live Signals affecting CFLT
| Score | Date | Source | Type | Cat | Dir | Conf | Mag | Horiz | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 2026-02-11 | CFLT | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
IBM acquiring Confluent at $35.00/share in cash is the single most consequential event in this filing. It represents a strategic bet by IBM that data streaming infrastructure is critical to enterprise…
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| 35 | 2026-03-17 | CFLT | 8-K | Strategic Shift | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
IBM-Confluent merger closed March 17, 2026. CFLT delisted from Nasdaq. IBM now owns the dominant Kafka-as-a-service platform, adding real-time streaming to HashiCorp and watsonx AI stack.
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| 23 | 2026-02-11 | CFLT | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Both the CEO and CFO adopted 10b5-1 trading plans exactly four days after announcing the IBM merger at $35.00/share. With shares trading near the deal price, the only rational motivation is to lock in…
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| 23 | 2026-02-11 | CFLT | 10-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Cloud crossing the majority-of-subscription threshold is the culmination of a multi-year platform shift. The trajectory from 50% to 54% in one year, accelerating from the prior pace, demonstrates that…
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| 23 | 2026-02-11 | CFLT | 10-K | Wildcard | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Releasing a valuation allowance is a strong signal that management now expects sustained profitability in the UK subsidiary. This is a forward-looking accounting judgment -- auditors would not permit …
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| 23 | 2026-02-11 | CFLT | 10-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Confluent ended FY2024 with $2.05B in liquid assets against $1.1B in convertible notes, giving net liquidity of ~$950M. Combined with operating cash flow turning positive at $64M for the year, the com…
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| 14 | 2025-10-27 | CFLT | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Operating cash flow turning positive at $22.2M for 9 months is the most important financial milestone in this filing. The company generated $24M more operating cash than the prior year period, despite…
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| 14 | 2025-10-27 | CFLT | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
RPO grew from $1.016B in Q1 to $1.259B in Q3 -- a $243M increase in two quarters (24% sequential growth). The 58% near-term conversion rate implies ~$730M locked in for the next 12 months, providing e…
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| 13 | 2026-03-17 | CFLT | 8-K | Wildcard | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
CRO resigned the day before closing — effective immediately, not after transition. Unusual for a key commercial leader in a strategic acquisition. Could signal disagreement with IBM's go-to-market pla…
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| 5 | 2025-10-27 | CFLT | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
A new $125M non-cancelable cloud infrastructure commitment through 2030 is a major signal about expected cloud consumption growth. Companies do not lock into 5-year infrastructure obligations unless t…
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All Inbound Impacts (17)
Every signal pointing at CFLT from another company's filings.
| Date | From | Filing | Cat | Dir | Conf | Mag | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | CFLT | 8-K | Strategic Shift | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
IBM-Confluent merger closed March 17, 2026. CFLT delisted from Nasdaq. IBM now owns the dominant Kafka-as-a-service platform, adding real-time streaming to HashiCorp and watsonx AI stack.
|
| 2026-03-17 | CFLT | 8-K | Wildcard | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
CRO resigned the day before closing — effective immediately, not after transition. Unusual for a key commercial leader in a strategic acquisition. Could signal disagreement with IBM's go-to-market pla…
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| 2026-02-12 | CFLT | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Stockholder vote passed 99.94% in favour. Negligible opposition. Removes final major condition besides foreign regulatory approvals.
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| 2026-02-11 | CFLT | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
IBM acquiring Confluent at $35.00/share in cash is the single most consequential event in this filing. It represents a strategic bet by IBM that data streaming infrastructure is critical to enterprise…
|
| 2026-02-11 | CFLT | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Both the CEO and CFO adopted 10b5-1 trading plans exactly four days after announcing the IBM merger at $35.00/share. With shares trading near the deal price, the only rational motivation is to lock in…
|
| 2026-02-11 | CFLT | 10-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Cloud crossing the majority-of-subscription threshold is the culmination of a multi-year platform shift. The trajectory from 50% to 54% in one year, accelerating from the prior pace, demonstrates that…
|
| 2026-02-11 | CFLT | 10-K | Wildcard | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Releasing a valuation allowance is a strong signal that management now expects sustained profitability in the UK subsidiary. This is a forward-looking accounting judgment -- auditors would not permit …
|
| 2026-02-11 | CFLT | 10-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Confluent ended FY2024 with $2.05B in liquid assets against $1.1B in convertible notes, giving net liquidity of ~$950M. Combined with operating cash flow turning positive at $64M for the year, the com…
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| 2026-02-04 | CFLT | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Supplemental disclosures reveal Morgan Stanley valuation: 5.0x-8.0x 2028 EV/Rev, 12.5x-17.5x terminal FCF multiples. Management projects net cash growing from $890M to ~$1.5B by 2028. Deal at lower en…
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| 2026-01-13 | CFLT | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
HSR antitrust waiting period expired without a second request. DOJ/FTC did not challenge the deal. Removes single largest US regulatory hurdle.
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| 2025-12-08 | CFLT | 8-K | Strategic Shift | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
IBM acquiring Confluent for $31/share all-cash. IBM's second major data infrastructure acquisition after HashiCorp, building comprehensive data platform stack. Confluent's real-time data streaming bec…
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| 2025-12-08 | CFLT | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Insiders controlling 62% of voting power committed to vote for the deal. Dual-class structure guarantees stockholder approval absent regulatory intervention.
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| 2025-12-08 | CFLT | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
IBM retaining founder/CEO Jay Kreps with 30-month retention RSU package. Signals IBM views Confluent as strategic growth platform, not acqui-hire or cost-cutting play.
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| 2025-10-27 | CFLT | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Operating cash flow turning positive at $22.2M for 9 months is the most important financial milestone in this filing. The company generated $24M more operating cash than the prior year period, despite…
|
| 2025-10-27 | CFLT | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
RPO grew from $1.016B in Q1 to $1.259B in Q3 -- a $243M increase in two quarters (24% sequential growth). The 58% near-term conversion rate implies ~$730M locked in for the next 12 months, providing e…
|
| 2025-10-27 | CFLT | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
A new $125M non-cancelable cloud infrastructure commitment through 2030 is a major signal about expected cloud consumption growth. Companies do not lock into 5-year infrastructure obligations unless t…
|
| 2025-10-27 | CFLT | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
International revenue grew 29% YoY and expanded from 39% to 42% of total revenue. This faster-than-domestic growth rate signals that Confluent's data streaming platform is gaining traction in markets …
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Outbound Impacts — CFLT's filings affect these tickers
| Date | Filing | Target | Cat | Dir for target | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | 8-K | IBM | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-03-17 | 8-K | IBM | Wildcard | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-12 | 8-K | IBM | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-11 | 10-K | IBM | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-11 | 10-K | AMZN | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-11 | 10-K | MSFT | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-11 | 10-K | GOOG | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-11 | 10-K | IBM | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-04 | 8-K | IBM | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-01-13 | 8-K | IBM | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-12-08 | 8-K | IBM | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-12-08 | 8-K | SNOW | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-12-08 | 8-K | IBM | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-12-08 | 8-K | IBM | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-27 | 10-Q | IBM | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-27 | 10-Q | IBM | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-27 | 10-Q | IBM | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-27 | 10-Q | AMZN | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-27 | 10-Q | GOOG | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-27 | 10-Q | IBM | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
Catalysts
| Date | Type | Confidence | Source | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | earnings | confirmed | yfinance | Next earnings (per yfinance) |
| 2026-04-30 | earnings | confirmed | yfinance | Next earnings (per yfinance) |