MSFT Microsoft Corp. WATCHLIST
48 inbound impacts
from 10 source companies
in last 180 days
7
Bullish impacts
7
Bearish impacts
34
Neutral impacts
5
Max significance
15
High-magnitude
Convergence Setup
▲ BULLISH Convergence score 16.3
6 events · 2 families · alignment 100%
Source families:
filingfund
Evidence Timeline
| Date | Family | Source | Dir | Mag | Mechanism | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | filing | SNOW 10-K | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source | 0.078 | |
| 2026-03-20 | filing | SNOW 10-K | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source | 0.078 | |
| 2026-02-17 | fund | Atreides Management 13F | ▲ | high | 13F position — $87,762M | 0.144 |
| 2026-02-17 | fund | Coatue Management 13F | ▲ | high | 13F position — $33,948M | 0.144 |
| 2026-02-17 | fund | Altimeter Capital 13F | ▲ | high | 13F position — $617,753M | 0.144 |
| 2026-02-17 | fund | Lone Pine Capital 13F | ▲ | high | 13F position — $596,848M | 0.144 |
Historical Base Rates for MSFT
From prior setups in our DB. Returns are simple price (entry next-day open → close at horizon). Alpha is excess vs benchmark.
| Horizon | N | Hit % | Avg ret | Median ret | α vs SPY | α vs QQQ | α vs SOXX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d | 82 | 30.5% | -3.13% | -2.82% | -1.9% | -1.71% | -1.63% |
| 20d | 80 | 28.7% | -3.54% | -5.23% | -3.68% | -3.66% | -5.4% |
| 60d | 58 | 31.0% | -3.32% | -6.09% | -8.25% | -9.11% | -23.41% |
Top Live Signals affecting MSFT
| Score | Date | Source | Type | Cat | Dir | Conf | Mag | Horiz | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 2026-03-20 | SNOW | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Snowflake is fundamentally shifting its identity from a purely analytical database (OLAP) to a hybrid transactional and analytical processing (HTAP) platform. By offering a fully managed Postgres data…
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| 40 | 2026-03-20 | SNOW | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Snowflake is fundamentally shifting its business model from a proprietary, walled-garden storage architecture to an open-compute model. By natively supporting Apache Iceberg and allowing data to resid…
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| 40 | 2026-01-28 | MSFT | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Microsoft has restructured its relationship with OpenAI through a 'Recapitalization', securing a massive $7.6 billion dilution gain. This reflects OpenAI raising outside capital at a vastly higher val…
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| 40 | 2026-01-28 | MSFT | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Microsoft recorded a massive $10 billion net gain in Q2 2026 driven by an 'OpenAI Recapitalization' that diluted their equity stake. This indicates a major private market revaluation and funding round…
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| 40 | 2026-01-28 | MSFT | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Microsoft is telegraphing its next major AI product wave: 'agentic' systems that operate autonomously to execute tasks, and highly personalized 'companion' AI. This represents a structural shift from …
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| 40 | 2026-01-28 | MSFT | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
The $155B in not-yet-commenced operating leases is staggering -- it represents datacentre capacity that Microsoft has contractually committed to but hasn't yet begun using. This is more than Microsoft…
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| 40 | 2026-01-28 | MSFT | 10-Q | Wildcard | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Microsoft booked a $7.6B gain from OpenAI's equity fundraise diluting MSFT's ownership percentage -- but because the per-share value increased more than the dilution, MSFT's remaining stake is worth m…
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| 40 | 2026-01-28 | MSFT | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Microsoft spent $29.9B on capex in a single quarter -- roughly $120B annualised -- nearly doubling from the prior year. With $261B in net PP&E and another $23B sitting in AP (equipment delivered but n…
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| 40 | 2026-01-28 | MSFT | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Microsoft Cloud margin declining 3 percentage points to 67% while revenue grows 23% is a critical signal. The margin compression is explicitly attributed to AI infrastructure scaling -- meaning Micros…
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| 40 | 2026-01-28 | MSFT | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Commercial RPO doubling to $625B is an extraordinary number -- it implies Microsoft has contracted future revenue equivalent to roughly 2 years of total company revenue. The 110% growth rate, far exce…
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All Inbound Impacts (48)
Every signal pointing at MSFT from another company's filings.
| Date | From | Filing | Cat | Dir | Conf | Mag | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | SNOW | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Snowflake is fundamentally shifting its identity from a purely analytical database (OLAP) to a hybrid transactional and analytical processing (HTAP) platform. By offering a fully managed Postgres data…
|
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| 2026-03-20 | SNOW | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Snowflake is fundamentally shifting its business model from a proprietary, walled-garden storage architecture to an open-compute model. By natively supporting Apache Iceberg and allowing data to resid…
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| 2026-03-11 | ORCL | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Oracle has more than tripled its capital expenditures year-over-year, spending over $39 billion in just nine months. This signals an incredibly aggressive infrastructure build-out to support Oracle Cl…
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| 2026-02-27 | AMZN | 8-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Amazon is committing a staggering $50 billion in total capital ($15 billion upfront, $35 billion committed) to OpenAI. This is one of the largest corporate investments in history, signaling that Amazo…
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| 2026-02-27 | AMZN | 8-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Amazon is breaking Microsoft Azure's monopoly on OpenAI's infrastructure and model distribution. By securing OpenAI as a massive AWS cloud customer and bringing OpenAI models natively to AWS, Amazon i…
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| 2026-02-25 | NVDA | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
NVIDIA is opening its historically closed, proprietary NVLink interconnect to allow third-party custom silicon (like a hyperscaler's in-house AI chip) to plug directly into NVIDIA's ecosystem. This is…
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| 2026-02-25 | NVDA | 10-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
NVIDIA is moving beyond just being a supplier to OpenAI and is securing a direct equity and partnership stake. This tightens the bond between the world's leading AI hardware provider and the leading A…
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| 2026-02-17 | ANET | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 4/5 | low |
MSFT's capex pace is upstream driver
Two customers (almost certainly Microsoft and Meta) each represent >10% of FY25 revenue. The split between these two — inferable from the reseller-A vs reseller-B disclosure pattern — tells you who's …
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| 2026-02-11 | CFLT | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
IBM acquiring Confluent at $35.00/share in cash is the single most consequential event in this filing. It represents a strategic bet by IBM that data streaming infrastructure is critical to enterprise…
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| 2026-02-06 | AMZN | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Buried in the Board of Directors list is the addition of Andrew Ng, one of the world's most prominent artificial intelligence pioneers and former head of Google Brain/Baidu AI. Adding a pure-play AI l…
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| 2026-02-06 | AMZN | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Amazon's financial exposure to Anthropic has grown to staggering proportions, with tens of billions in fair value gains recorded in 2025 alone. Crucially, Amazon explicitly links this investment to An…
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| 2026-02-05 | GOOG | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
A federal court has formally ordered Google to break open its search monopoly by sharing its highly proprietary search data and offering syndication services to rivals. This fundamentally alters Googl…
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| 2026-02-04 | AMD | 10-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
AMD has secured a massive, multi-year, direct hardware deployment agreement with OpenAI. Committing to '6 gigawatts' of GPU capacity is an unprecedented metric of scale that highlights the extreme phy…
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| 2026-02-04 | AMD | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
AMD has secured a staggering 6-gigawatt deployment contract with OpenAI, powered by its upcoming MI450 chips. To win this cornerstone customer and break Nvidia's monopoly, AMD granted OpenAI a nearly …
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| 2026-01-29 | META | 10-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Meta is formally committing resources to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), which they are explicitly terming 'superintelligence'. They are no longer just building AI to rank feeds or ge…
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| 2026-01-29 | META | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Meta won a critical summary judgment affirming that training its generative AI models on copyrighted materials constitutes 'fair use'. This establishes a monumental legal precedent that removes a mass…
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| 2026-01-28 | MSFT | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Microsoft has restructured its relationship with OpenAI through a 'Recapitalization', securing a massive $7.6 billion dilution gain. This reflects OpenAI raising outside capital at a vastly higher val…
|
| 2026-01-28 | MSFT | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Microsoft recorded a massive $10 billion net gain in Q2 2026 driven by an 'OpenAI Recapitalization' that diluted their equity stake. This indicates a major private market revaluation and funding round…
|
| 2026-01-28 | MSFT | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Microsoft is telegraphing its next major AI product wave: 'agentic' systems that operate autonomously to execute tasks, and highly personalized 'companion' AI. This represents a structural shift from …
|
| 2026-01-28 | MSFT | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
The $155B in not-yet-commenced operating leases is staggering -- it represents datacentre capacity that Microsoft has contractually committed to but hasn't yet begun using. This is more than Microsoft…
|
| 2026-01-28 | MSFT | 10-Q | Wildcard | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Microsoft booked a $7.6B gain from OpenAI's equity fundraise diluting MSFT's ownership percentage -- but because the per-share value increased more than the dilution, MSFT's remaining stake is worth m…
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| 2026-01-28 | MSFT | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Microsoft spent $29.9B on capex in a single quarter -- roughly $120B annualised -- nearly doubling from the prior year. With $261B in net PP&E and another $23B sitting in AP (equipment delivered but n…
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| 2026-01-28 | MSFT | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Microsoft Cloud margin declining 3 percentage points to 67% while revenue grows 23% is a critical signal. The margin compression is explicitly attributed to AI infrastructure scaling -- meaning Micros…
|
| 2026-01-28 | MSFT | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Commercial RPO doubling to $625B is an extraordinary number -- it implies Microsoft has contracted future revenue equivalent to roughly 2 years of total company revenue. The 110% growth rate, far exce…
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| 2025-12-11 | ORCL | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Oracle's backlog (RPO) exploded by an unprecedented $426 billion year-over-year, a greater than 5x increase. This massive jump is buried at the end of the filing and indicates Oracle has signed histor…
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| 2025-12-08 | MSFT | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
The presence and subsequent rejection of this proposal highlights Microsoft's strategic choice to aggressively supply AI and machine learning tools to the oil and gas sector. By resisting additional r…
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| 2025-12-08 | MSFT | 8-K | Wildcard | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Over 27% of voting shares supported a probe into Microsoft's data operations in geopolitically sensitive areas—a remarkably high rebellion rate for a $3T+ mega-cap. This surfaces a growing institution…
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| 2025-12-08 | MSFT | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Management successfully defeated a proposal demanding oversight into its AI data usage. This reflects a rigid commitment to maintaining maximum opacity and flexibility in how they scrape, source, and …
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| 2025-11-19 | NVDA | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
NVIDIA is aggressively deploying its hardware profits to buy equity in the world's leading foundation model companies. By committing up to $10 billion to Anthropic and opening an LOI with OpenAI, NVID…
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| 2025-11-19 | NVDA | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Nvidia is deploying its massive free cash flow directly into the foundational layer of the AI ecosystem by taking multi-billion dollar stakes in the two leading frontier model developers. This capital…
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| 2025-11-05 | AMD | 10-Q | Wildcard | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
AMD issued penny warrants for up to 160M shares (~10% dilution) to OpenAI, gated on GPU purchase milestones. Locks OpenAI into AMD's GPU ecosystem with massive equity upside. AMD's biggest strategic m…
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| 2025-11-05 | AMD | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
AMD is effectively offering nearly 10% of its outstanding shares (160M vs 1.62B outstanding) to OpenAI for pennies, conditioned on OpenAI buying AMD GPUs. This is a massive, aggressive structural bet …
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| 2025-11-05 | AMD | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
AMD has quietly signed a massive, highly dilutive warrant agreement with OpenAI (potentially worth tens of billions of dollars given the 160M share count) to directly incentivize the world's top AI la…
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| 2025-10-31 | AMZN | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Amazon is doubling down on its generative AI model partner, Anthropic, committing another $1.4B in Q4 2025. More notably, Anthropic's valuation has surged so dramatically that Amazon recognized a $10.…
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| 2025-10-30 | GOOG | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Despite public reports in mid-2024 that Alphabet's $23 billion acquisition of cybersecurity firm Wiz had fallen apart, this forward-looking statement explicitly references the pending closing and inte…
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| 2025-10-30 | GOOG | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Alphabet is making its largest acquisition in history by purchasing Wiz for $32 billion in cash. This is a massive, thesis-altering bet that enterprise cloud market share will increasingly be won or l…
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| 2025-10-30 | GOOG | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
The long-standing theoretical threat of antitrust action has crossed the Rubicon into operational reality. Google is now legally mandated to syndicate its proprietary search data to rivals and alter i…
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| 2025-10-30 | META | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Meta has historically relied almost exclusively on its own proprietary data centers for infrastructure. Committing a staggering $40 billion to third-party cloud providers is a massive structural shift…
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| 2025-10-30 | META | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Buried in the legal proceedings is a monumental legal victory for Meta and the broader AI industry: a court has granted summary judgment validating the 'fair use' defense for training generative AI mo…
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| 2025-10-29 | MSFT | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Microsoft is utilizing its massive balance sheet to act as a pseudo-bank for its hardware supply chain, advancing cash or credit to secure server components (likely GPUs and AI networking gear). The s…
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| 2025-10-29 | MSFT | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Microsoft recognized a massive $4.1 billion equity loss from OpenAI in a single quarter, a nearly 6x increase year-over-year. This staggering figure lays bare the astronomical operating costs and cash…
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| 2025-10-29 | MSFT | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Microsoft fundamentally restructured its defining AI partnership. While securing an unprecedented $250 billion guaranteed revenue backlog for Azure, Microsoft relinquished its exclusive lock on provid…
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| 2025-10-29 | MSFT | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Microsoft has committed an astonishing $106.2 billion in off-balance-sheet forward leases exclusively for datacenters over the next 5-6 years. This guarantees a massive, sustained physical footprint b…
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| 2025-10-29 | MSFT | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Microsoft is aggressively accelerating its capital expenditure, specifically hoarding 'components' (explicitly identified later as graphics processing units/servers) and building physical data centers…
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| 2025-10-29 | MSFT | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Microsoft is aggressively committing capital to physical datacenter expansion specifically to support AI workloads. The explicit acknowledgment that competitors are tapping the exact same suppliers hi…
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| 2025-10-29 | MSFT | 8-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Microsoft is officially announcing a new phase in its flagship relationship with OpenAI. By deliberately filing this blog post as an Exhibit 99.2 in an 8-K alongside its quarterly earnings, Microsoft …
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| 2025-10-29 | MSFT | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Microsoft deployed $19.4 billion in capital expenditures in a single quarter, representing an annualized run-rate approaching $80 billion. This confirms an unwavering, all-in bet on building out the p…
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| 2025-10-29 | MSFT | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Microsoft absorbed a massive $4.1 billion equity-method loss from OpenAI in a single quarter—an almost 6x increase year-over-year. This buried line item highlights the staggering, accelerating cash bu…
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Outbound Impacts — MSFT's filings affect these tickers
| Date | Filing | Target | Cat | Dir for target | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-28 | 10-Q | GOOG | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-01-28 | 10-Q | META | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-01-28 | 10-Q | EQIX | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-01-28 | 10-Q | DLR | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-01-28 | 10-Q | NVDA | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-01-28 | 10-Q | VST | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-01-28 | 10-Q | CEG | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-01-28 | 10-Q | NVDA | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-01-28 | 10-Q | AMD | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-01-28 | 10-Q | SMCI | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-01-28 | 10-Q | AMZN | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-01-28 | 10-Q | GOOG | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-01-28 | 10-Q | NVDA | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-01-28 | 10-Q | ORCL | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-01-28 | 10-Q | AMZN | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-12-08 | 8-K | AMZN | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-12-08 | 8-K | GOOG | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-12-08 | 8-K | XOM | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-12-08 | 8-K | CVX | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-12-08 | 8-K | SLB | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-29 | 10-Q | NVDA | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-29 | 10-Q | AMD | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-29 | 10-Q | SMCI | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-29 | 10-Q | DELL | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-29 | 10-Q | ANET | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-29 | 10-Q | GOOG | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-29 | 10-Q | META | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-29 | 10-Q | AMZN | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-29 | 10-Q | NVDA | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-29 | 10-Q | AMD | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-29 | 10-Q | VRT | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-29 | 10-Q | ETN | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-29 | 10-Q | PWR | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
Catalysts
| Date | Type | Confidence | Source | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | earnings | confirmed | yfinance | Next earnings (per yfinance) |
| 2026-04-30 | earnings | confirmed | yfinance | Next earnings (per yfinance) |