AMD Advanced Micro Devices WATCHLIST
46 inbound impacts
from 8 source companies
in last 180 days
11
Bullish impacts
6
Bearish impacts
29
Neutral impacts
5
Max significance
18
High-magnitude
Historical Base Rates for AMD
From prior setups in our DB. Returns are simple price (entry next-day open → close at horizon). Alpha is excess vs benchmark.
| Horizon | N | Hit % | Avg ret | Median ret | α vs SPY | α vs QQQ | α vs SOXX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d | 103 | 51.5% | +1.35% | +1.2% | +1.64% | +1.19% | +0.22% |
| 20d | 103 | 47.6% | +2.78% | -1.77% | +2.0% | +1.0% | -0.98% |
| 60d | 79 | 72.2% | +31.88% | +37.42% | +26.34% | +24.95% | +12.98% |
Top Live Signals affecting AMD
| Score | Date | Source | Type | Cat | Dir | Conf | Mag | Horiz | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 2026-02-04 | AMD | 10-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
The formal inclusion of ZT Systems as a distinct financial line item highlights AMD's strategic acquisition and integration of a major AI system provider. This signals a fundamental shift from selling…
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| 57 | 2026-02-04 | AMD | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
The tracking of a Corporate Joint Venture dedicated to ATMP (Assembly, Test, Mark, and Pack) indicates AMD is deploying capital to secure its own advanced packaging supply chain. As packaging is the p…
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| 57 | 2026-02-04 | AMD | 10-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
AMD has secured a massive, multi-year, direct hardware deployment agreement with OpenAI. Committing to '6 gigawatts' of GPU capacity is an unprecedented metric of scale that highlights the extreme phy…
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| 57 | 2026-02-04 | AMD | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
AMD is moving up the value chain to compete directly with Nvidia's system-level offerings by acquiring rack-scale design capabilities. Crucially, they immediately spun off the low-margin, capital-inte…
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| 57 | 2026-02-04 | AMD | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
The U.S. government is attempting to extract a 15% top-line revenue cut from AMD for allowing the export of its MI308 AI accelerators to China. This is a massive, unprecedented shift in U.S. export co…
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| 57 | 2026-02-04 | AMD | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Nvidia is using its massive capital advantage to directly invest in and partner with Intel. This is a monumental market shift where the dominant GPU maker (Nvidia) is propping up AMD's primary CPU riv…
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| 57 | 2026-02-04 | AMD | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
AMD has secured a staggering 6-gigawatt deployment contract with OpenAI, powered by its upcoming MI450 chips. To win this cornerstone customer and break Nvidia's monopoly, AMD granted OpenAI a nearly …
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| 57 | 2026-02-04 | AMD | 10-K | Wildcard | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
The U.S. government is attempting to extract a 15% revenue cut from authorized sales of AI chips to China. This is an unprecedented shift in U.S. policy, transforming export controls from a strict nat…
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| 34 | 2026-02-25 | NVDA | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
NVIDIA is opening its historically closed, proprietary NVLink interconnect to allow third-party custom silicon (like a hyperscaler's in-house AI chip) to plug directly into NVIDIA's ecosystem. This is…
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| 34 | 2026-02-25 | NVDA | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
The U.S. government is informally demanding an unprecedented 15% revenue cut on licensed chip exports to China. This acts as a massive, uncodified shadow tax on tech exports. Most investors will miss …
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All Inbound Impacts (46)
Every signal pointing at AMD from another company's filings.
| Date | From | Filing | Cat | Dir | Conf | Mag | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | ORCL | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Oracle has more than tripled its capital expenditures year-over-year, spending over $39 billion in just nine months. This signals an incredibly aggressive infrastructure build-out to support Oracle Cl…
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| 2026-02-25 | NVDA | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
NVIDIA is opening its historically closed, proprietary NVLink interconnect to allow third-party custom silicon (like a hyperscaler's in-house AI chip) to plug directly into NVIDIA's ecosystem. This is…
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| 2026-02-25 | NVDA | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
The U.S. government is informally demanding an unprecedented 15% revenue cut on licensed chip exports to China. This acts as a massive, uncodified shadow tax on tech exports. Most investors will miss …
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| 2026-02-24 | AMD | 8-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Compute procurement has reached such extreme scale that it is no longer being measured in chip volume or server racks, but in 'gigawatt equivalents.' Meta is committing to an unprecedented multi-gigaw…
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| 2026-02-24 | AMD | 8-K | Strategic Shift | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
AMD is deploying its balance sheet to break into the hyperscaler monopoly, effectively giving away roughly 10% of its total outstanding equity (160M shares) to secure Meta as an anchor customer. This …
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| 2026-02-24 | AMD | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
The $600 stock price hurdle previously seen in CEO Lisa Su's retention grant was not an arbitrary internal target; it is the exact financial benchmark underwritten by Meta's 6-gigawatt hardware purcha…
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| 2026-02-17 | AMD | 8-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Buried in the justification for a massive retention grant, the Board casually references a strategic "shift." This explicit acknowledgment indicates that AMD is currently undergoing a major multi-year…
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| 2026-02-17 | AMD | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
By specifically including "Executive Chair" as a qualifying role for Dr. Su's 2026-2031 equity grant, the Board is quietly laying the legal framework for a CEO succession plan. It signals to careful r…
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| 2026-02-17 | AMD | 8-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
The Board has structured the maximum payout of this special $75M grant around a $600 stock price hurdle by 2031. Setting a target this high—expressly noted as being well above the 50th percentile of t…
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| 2026-02-06 | AMZN | 10-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Amazon increased its capital expenditures by a staggering $50.6 billion year-over-year (+65%), entirely driven by AWS and AI infrastructure. They are committing unprecedented levels of capital to gene…
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| 2026-02-06 | AMZN | 10-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Amazon's total capital expenditures exploded to $131.8 billion in 2025, up from $83 billion in 2024. AWS alone added $96.5 billion in net property and equipment in a single year (nearly doubling its 2…
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| 2026-02-06 | AMZN | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Amazon is explicitly acknowledging its strict dependency on a small group of GPU suppliers to build its AI infrastructure. By formalizing this as a material risk factor, Amazon highlights the extreme …
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| 2026-02-05 | GOOG | 10-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
A jaw-dropping $113 billion in short-term (due within 12 months) purchase commitments primarily for servers, networking equipment, and energy. This is on top of the $91.4 billion already spent on CapE…
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| 2026-02-04 | AMD | 10-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
The formal inclusion of ZT Systems as a distinct financial line item highlights AMD's strategic acquisition and integration of a major AI system provider. This signals a fundamental shift from selling…
|
| 2026-02-04 | AMD | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
The tracking of a Corporate Joint Venture dedicated to ATMP (Assembly, Test, Mark, and Pack) indicates AMD is deploying capital to secure its own advanced packaging supply chain. As packaging is the p…
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| 2026-02-04 | AMD | 10-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
AMD has secured a massive, multi-year, direct hardware deployment agreement with OpenAI. Committing to '6 gigawatts' of GPU capacity is an unprecedented metric of scale that highlights the extreme phy…
|
| 2026-02-04 | AMD | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
AMD is moving up the value chain to compete directly with Nvidia's system-level offerings by acquiring rack-scale design capabilities. Crucially, they immediately spun off the low-margin, capital-inte…
|
| 2026-02-04 | AMD | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
The U.S. government is attempting to extract a 15% top-line revenue cut from AMD for allowing the export of its MI308 AI accelerators to China. This is a massive, unprecedented shift in U.S. export co…
|
| 2026-02-04 | AMD | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Nvidia is using its massive capital advantage to directly invest in and partner with Intel. This is a monumental market shift where the dominant GPU maker (Nvidia) is propping up AMD's primary CPU riv…
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| 2026-02-04 | AMD | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
AMD has secured a staggering 6-gigawatt deployment contract with OpenAI, powered by its upcoming MI450 chips. To win this cornerstone customer and break Nvidia's monopoly, AMD granted OpenAI a nearly …
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| 2026-02-04 | AMD | 10-K | Wildcard | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
The U.S. government is attempting to extract a 15% revenue cut from authorized sales of AI chips to China. This is an unprecedented shift in U.S. policy, transforming export controls from a strict nat…
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| 2026-01-29 | META | 10-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Meta is formally committing resources to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), which they are explicitly terming 'superintelligence'. They are no longer just building AI to rank feeds or ge…
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| 2026-01-29 | META | 10-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Meta is officially stating 'superintelligence' (Artificial General Intelligence) as a core investment objective. This is a massive leap from standard machine learning and requires unprecedented capita…
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| 2026-01-28 | MSFT | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Microsoft spent $29.9B on capex in a single quarter -- roughly $120B annualised -- nearly doubling from the prior year. With $261B in net PP&E and another $23B sitting in AP (equipment delivered but n…
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| 2025-12-11 | ORCL | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
RPO surged from $455B to $523B in one quarter — $68B increase. Only 10% converts in 12 months. $523B backlog dwarfs ~$62B annual revenue run-rate. RPO growth (15% QoQ) accelerating faster than revenue…
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| 2025-12-11 | ORCL | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Oracle is radically accelerating its capital expenditures, tripling its 1H capex year-over-year (and hitting $35.4 billion on a trailing 12-month basis). The company is betting its entire balance shee…
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| 2025-11-19 | NVDA | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
NVIDIA is making a massive, unprecedented $5 billion strategic investment in Intel. This suggests a major geopolitical and supply chain hedge, likely aimed at securing domestic foundry capacity, break…
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| 2025-11-19 | NVDA | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Nvidia is deploying its massive free cash flow directly into the foundational layer of the AI ecosystem by taking multi-billion dollar stakes in the two leading frontier model developers. This capital…
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| 2025-11-06 | INTC | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Intel swung from $9.1B operating loss to $683M income — $9.7B improvement YoY. Altera gain ($5.5B) flatters this, but every segment improved: CCG +31%, DCAI +52%, Foundry loss narrowed 60%.
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| 2025-11-06 | INTC | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Intel has executed a major structural contraction by surrendering majority control of its FPGA business (Altera) to private equity. This is a severe liquidity preservation move, trading away long-term…
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| 2025-11-05 | AMD | 10-Q | Wildcard | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
AMD issued penny warrants for up to 160M shares (~10% dilution) to OpenAI, gated on GPU purchase milestones. Locks OpenAI into AMD's GPU ecosystem with massive equity upside. AMD's biggest strategic m…
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| 2025-11-05 | AMD | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Buried in the XBRL tags is the introduction of an 'ATMP' (Assembly, Test, Mark, and Pack) Joint Venture. Advanced packaging is the primary chokepoint in AI accelerator production. By committing capita…
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| 2025-11-05 | AMD | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
AMD is effectively offering nearly 10% of its outstanding shares (160M vs 1.62B outstanding) to OpenAI for pennies, conditioned on OpenAI buying AMD GPUs. This is a massive, aggressive structural bet …
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| 2025-11-05 | AMD | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
AMD has quietly signed a massive, highly dilutive warrant agreement with OpenAI (potentially worth tens of billions of dollars given the 160M share count) to directly incentivize the world's top AI la…
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| 2025-11-05 | AMD | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
AMD is aggressively pivoting from selling standalone chips to selling data-center-scale AI systems, mimicking Nvidia's rack-scale strategy (e.g., NVL72). By acquiring ZT Systems for its system design …
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| 2025-11-05 | AMD | 10-Q | Wildcard | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
NVIDIA is directly investing in and partnering with Intel to collaborate on data center and client platforms. This is a massive, landscape-altering alliance that pairs the dominant GPU leader with the…
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| 2025-11-05 | AMD | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
The U.S. government is quietly floating a radical new policy to extract a 15% revenue share on the export of advanced AI chips to China. This functions as a massive geopolitical tariff or royalty, str…
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| 2025-11-05 | AMD | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
AMD has quietly issued equity warrants to OpenAI, fundamentally aligning the financial interests of the world's premier AI lab with AMD's success. Issuing warrants to a customer/partner is a highly ag…
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| 2025-10-31 | AMZN | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Amazon is accelerating its capital expenditures at an unprecedented rate, jumping over 60% year-over-year to $34.2B in a single quarter. This signals an astronomical, ongoing arms race in generative A…
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| 2025-10-31 | AMZN | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Amazon has nearly doubled its AWS capital expenditures year-over-year, deploying a staggering $64.8 billion into AWS infrastructure in just nine months. This indicates a historic, unprecedented accele…
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| 2025-10-31 | AMZN | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Amazon is betting the farm on generative AI infrastructure, accelerating its capital expenditures to a staggering $34.2 billion in a single quarter (a ~$136B annual run-rate). This represents a massiv…
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| 2025-10-30 | GOOG | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Google's 9-month capital expenditures hit $63.6 billion, a massive 66% increase from the $38.2 billion spent in the same period the prior year. The sheer velocity of cash being converted into servers …
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| 2025-10-30 | META | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Meta is doubling down on its infrastructure buildout at an unprecedented scale. A $70B+ CapEx budget (which is further expected to grow in 2026) signals that the AI infrastructure arms race is still i…
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| 2025-10-29 | MSFT | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Microsoft is utilizing its massive balance sheet to act as a pseudo-bank for its hardware supply chain, advancing cash or credit to secure server components (likely GPUs and AI networking gear). The s…
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| 2025-10-29 | MSFT | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Microsoft is aggressively accelerating its capital expenditure, specifically hoarding 'components' (explicitly identified later as graphics processing units/servers) and building physical data centers…
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| 2025-10-27 | AMD | 8-K | Strategic Shift | ▼ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
AMD is finalizing the divestment of ZT Systems' server manufacturing operations to Sanmina. Following its earlier acquisition of ZT to capture top-tier AI system design talent, AMD is now shedding the…
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Outbound Impacts — AMD's filings affect these tickers
| Date | Filing | Target | Cat | Dir for target | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-24 | 8-K | META | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-24 | 8-K | NVDA | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-24 | 8-K | META | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-04 | 10-K | NVDA | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-04 | 10-K | MSFT | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-04 | 10-K | SANM | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-04 | 10-K | SMCI | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-04 | 10-K | NVDA | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-04 | 10-K | NVDA | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-04 | 10-K | INTC | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-04 | 10-K | NVDA | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-04 | 10-K | MSFT | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-04 | 10-K | NVDA | Wildcard | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-04 | 10-K | INTC | Wildcard | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-05 | 10-Q | NVDA | Wildcard | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-05 | 10-Q | MSFT | Wildcard | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-05 | 10-Q | SANM | Wildcard | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-05 | 10-Q | AMAT | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-05 | 10-Q | ASMPT | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-05 | 10-Q | NVDA | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-05 | 10-Q | MSFT | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-05 | 10-Q | NVDA | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-05 | 10-Q | MSFT | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-05 | 10-Q | SANM | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-05 | 10-Q | SMCI | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-05 | 10-Q | NVDA | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-05 | 10-Q | NVDA | Wildcard | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-05 | 10-Q | INTC | Wildcard | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-27 | 8-K | SANM | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
Catalysts
| Date | Type | Confidence | Source | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | earnings | confirmed | yfinance | Next earnings (per yfinance) |
| 2026-05-06 | earnings | confirmed | yfinance | Next earnings (per yfinance) |