NVDA NVIDIA Corp. WATCHLIST
63 inbound impacts
from 13 source companies
in last 180 days
3
Bullish impacts
14
Bearish impacts
46
Neutral impacts
5
Max significance
16
High-magnitude
Convergence Setup
▲ BULLISH Convergence score 24.4
10 events · 2 families · alignment 100%
Source families:
filingfund
Evidence Timeline
| Date | Family | Source | Dir | Mag | Mechanism | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | filing | CRWV 8-K | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source | 0.223 | |
| 2026-04-14 | filing | CRWV 8-K | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source | 0.218 | |
| 2026-04-09 | filing | CRWV 8-K | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source | 0.19 | |
| 2026-03-31 | filing | CRWV 8-K | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source | 0.139 | |
| 2026-02-17 | fund | Atreides Management 13F | ▲ | high | 13F position — $359,056M | 0.144 |
| 2026-02-17 | fund | Coatue Management 13F | ▲ | high | 13F position — $357,323M | 0.144 |
| 2026-02-17 | fund | D1 Capital Partners 13F | ▲ | high | 13F position — $214,421M | 0.144 |
| 2026-02-17 | fund | Altimeter Capital 13F | ▲ | high | 13F position — $1,510,608M | 0.144 |
| 2026-02-17 | fund | Whale Rock Capital 13F | ▲ | high | 13F position — $224,116M | 0.144 |
| 2026-02-17 | fund | Dragoneer Investment Group 13F | ▲ | high | 13F position — $493,924M | 0.144 |
Historical Base Rates for NVDA
From prior setups in our DB. Returns are simple price (entry next-day open → close at horizon). Alpha is excess vs benchmark.
| Horizon | N | Hit % | Avg ret | Median ret | α vs SPY | α vs QQQ | α vs SOXX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d | 117 | 46.2% | -0.82% | -1.61% | -0.49% | -0.88% | -1.62% |
| 20d | 115 | 52.2% | +2.25% | +0.27% | +1.52% | +0.67% | -2.28% |
| 60d | 83 | 60.2% | +15.8% | +3.58% | +10.55% | +9.54% | -3.12% |
Top Live Signals affecting NVDA
| Score | Date | Source | Type | Cat | Dir | Conf | Mag | Horiz | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 2026-02-25 | NVDA | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
NVIDIA is opening its historically closed, proprietary NVLink interconnect to allow third-party custom silicon (like a hyperscaler's in-house AI chip) to plug directly into NVIDIA's ecosystem. This is…
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| 67 | 2026-02-25 | NVDA | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
The U.S. government is informally demanding an unprecedented 15% revenue cut on licensed chip exports to China. This acts as a massive, uncodified shadow tax on tech exports. Most investors will miss …
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| 67 | 2026-02-25 | NVDA | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
NVIDIA is officially conceding the loss of the Chinese data center market, completely writing off its China-specific H20 chip to the tune of $4.5 billion. The company is admitting that navigating the …
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| 67 | 2026-02-25 | NVDA | 10-K | Future Bet | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
NVIDIA is quietly licensing technology from Groq, a high-profile competitor known for its ultra-fast LPU inference chips. This is a massive defensive and offensive bet to integrate Groq's architecture…
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| 67 | 2026-02-25 | NVDA | 10-K | Future Bet | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
NVIDIA is moving beyond just being a supplier to OpenAI and is securing a direct equity and partnership stake. This tightens the bond between the world's leading AI hardware provider and the leading A…
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| 67 | 2026-02-25 | NVDA | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
China has found a novel legal mechanism to retaliate against U.S. export controls: weaponizing the conditional approvals of past mergers. By claiming NVIDIA violated the Mellanox merger terms by compl…
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| 67 | 2026-02-25 | NVDA | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
The U.S. government is attempting to extract a 15% revenue cut on licensed chip sales to China and is simultaneously slapping a 25% tariff on NVIDIA's H200 chips upon their required re-importation for…
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| 67 | 2026-02-25 | NVDA | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
NVIDIA is acting as a massive balance-sheet backstop for the AI infrastructure buildout. By directly guaranteeing $3.5 billion in real estate and power contracts for early-stage 'neocloud' providers, …
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| 45 | 2026-04-15 | CRWV | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Jane Street — one of the world's largest quantitative trading firms — took a $1B private placement in CoreWeave at $109/share, a premium to the IPO price. This is not a typical PIPE; Jane Street's inv…
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| 44 | 2026-04-14 | CRWV | 8-K | Future Bet | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
CoreWeave raised $5.75B in a single day — $4B in convertible notes (1.75% coupon, ~$119.60 conversion price at 30% premium) plus $1.75B in senior unsecured notes at 9.75%. This is an enormous capital …
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All Inbound Impacts (50)
Every signal pointing at NVDA from another company's filings.
| Date | From | Filing | Cat | Dir | Conf | Mag | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | CRWV | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Jane Street — one of the world's largest quantitative trading firms — took a $1B private placement in CoreWeave at $109/share, a premium to the IPO price. This is not a typical PIPE; Jane Street's inv…
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| 2026-04-14 | CRWV | 8-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
CoreWeave raised $5.75B in a single day — $4B in convertible notes (1.75% coupon, ~$119.60 conversion price at 30% premium) plus $1.75B in senior unsecured notes at 9.75%. This is an enormous capital …
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| 2026-04-09 | CRWV | 8-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Meta commitment expanded from $14.2B to $21B -- 48% increase. Largest single cloud computing contract ever publicly disclosed. Total disclosed customer commitments now approximately $33.8B.
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| 2026-03-31 | CRWV | 8-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
DDTL 4.0 is a staggering $8.5B -- more than 3x DDTL 3.0. SOFR+2.25% rate is dramatically cheaper than prior DDTLs (SOFR+4.00%). Total disclosed debt facilities now exceed $20B.
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| 2026-03-11 | MRVL | 10-K | Future Bet | ▼ | 3/5 | low |
Erodes NVLink scale-up moat over multiple node cycles
MRVL paid $1.3B cash + 24.5M shares for Celestial AI's Photonic Fabric — the optical scale-up interconnect tech that competes directly with NVIDIA's proprietary NVLink at the chip-to-chip layer inside…
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| 2026-03-11 | ORCL | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Oracle has more than tripled its capital expenditures year-over-year, spending over $39 billion in just nine months. This signals an incredibly aggressive infrastructure build-out to support Oracle Cl…
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| 2026-03-02 | CRWV | 10-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
RPO quadrupled YoY to $60.7B with 5-year weighted-average duration, representing nearly 12x FY2025 revenue of $5.1B. Overwhelmingly take-or-pay, meaning customers bear utilisation risk.
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| 2026-03-02 | CRWV | 10-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Positioning as first-to-deploy for NVIDIA Rubin (next-gen after Blackwell). Already deploying GB200 and GB300. Maintains privileged allocation position with NVIDIA.
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| 2026-02-25 | NVDA | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
NVIDIA is opening its historically closed, proprietary NVLink interconnect to allow third-party custom silicon (like a hyperscaler's in-house AI chip) to plug directly into NVIDIA's ecosystem. This is…
|
| 2026-02-25 | NVDA | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
The U.S. government is informally demanding an unprecedented 15% revenue cut on licensed chip exports to China. This acts as a massive, uncodified shadow tax on tech exports. Most investors will miss …
|
| 2026-02-25 | NVDA | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
NVIDIA is officially conceding the loss of the Chinese data center market, completely writing off its China-specific H20 chip to the tune of $4.5 billion. The company is admitting that navigating the …
|
| 2026-02-25 | NVDA | 10-K | Future Bet | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
NVIDIA is quietly licensing technology from Groq, a high-profile competitor known for its ultra-fast LPU inference chips. This is a massive defensive and offensive bet to integrate Groq's architecture…
|
| 2026-02-25 | NVDA | 10-K | Future Bet | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
NVIDIA is moving beyond just being a supplier to OpenAI and is securing a direct equity and partnership stake. This tightens the bond between the world's leading AI hardware provider and the leading A…
|
| 2026-02-25 | NVDA | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
China has found a novel legal mechanism to retaliate against U.S. export controls: weaponizing the conditional approvals of past mergers. By claiming NVIDIA violated the Mellanox merger terms by compl…
|
| 2026-02-25 | NVDA | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
The U.S. government is attempting to extract a 15% revenue cut on licensed chip sales to China and is simultaneously slapping a 25% tariff on NVIDIA's H200 chips upon their required re-importation for…
|
| 2026-02-25 | NVDA | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
NVIDIA is acting as a massive balance-sheet backstop for the AI infrastructure buildout. By directly guaranteeing $3.5 billion in real estate and power contracts for early-stage 'neocloud' providers, …
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| 2026-02-24 | AMD | 8-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Compute procurement has reached such extreme scale that it is no longer being measured in chip volume or server racks, but in 'gigawatt equivalents.' Meta is committing to an unprecedented multi-gigaw…
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| 2026-02-17 | ANET | 10-K | Future Bet | ▼ | 3/5 | low |
Erodes Mellanox InfiniBand share at the scale-out layer
ANET has built a 20+ product Etherlink family explicitly positioned against InfiniBand at the AI fabric layer. The 7800R AI Spine, 7060 AI Leaf and 7700R4 Distributed Etherlink Switch (DES) cover all …
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| 2026-02-06 | AMZN | 10-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Amazon increased its capital expenditures by a staggering $50.6 billion year-over-year (+65%), entirely driven by AWS and AI infrastructure. They are committing unprecedented levels of capital to gene…
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| 2026-02-06 | AMZN | 10-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Amazon's total capital expenditures exploded to $131.8 billion in 2025, up from $83 billion in 2024. AWS alone added $96.5 billion in net property and equipment in a single year (nearly doubling its 2…
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| 2026-02-06 | AMZN | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Amazon's financial exposure to Anthropic has grown to staggering proportions, with tens of billions in fair value gains recorded in 2025 alone. Crucially, Amazon explicitly links this investment to An…
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| 2026-02-06 | AMZN | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Amazon is explicitly acknowledging its strict dependency on a small group of GPU suppliers to build its AI infrastructure. By formalizing this as a material risk factor, Amazon highlights the extreme …
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| 2026-02-05 | GOOG | 10-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
A jaw-dropping $113 billion in short-term (due within 12 months) purchase commitments primarily for servers, networking equipment, and energy. This is on top of the $91.4 billion already spent on CapE…
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| 2026-02-04 | AMD | 10-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
AMD has secured a massive, multi-year, direct hardware deployment agreement with OpenAI. Committing to '6 gigawatts' of GPU capacity is an unprecedented metric of scale that highlights the extreme phy…
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| 2026-02-04 | AMD | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
AMD is moving up the value chain to compete directly with Nvidia's system-level offerings by acquiring rack-scale design capabilities. Crucially, they immediately spun off the low-margin, capital-inte…
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| 2026-02-04 | AMD | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Nvidia is using its massive capital advantage to directly invest in and partner with Intel. This is a monumental market shift where the dominant GPU maker (Nvidia) is propping up AMD's primary CPU riv…
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| 2026-02-04 | AMD | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
AMD has secured a staggering 6-gigawatt deployment contract with OpenAI, powered by its upcoming MI450 chips. To win this cornerstone customer and break Nvidia's monopoly, AMD granted OpenAI a nearly …
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| 2026-02-04 | AMD | 10-K | Wildcard | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
The U.S. government is attempting to extract a 15% revenue cut from authorized sales of AI chips to China. This is an unprecedented shift in U.S. policy, transforming export controls from a strict nat…
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| 2026-01-29 | META | 10-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Meta is formally committing resources to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), which they are explicitly terming 'superintelligence'. They are no longer just building AI to rank feeds or ge…
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| 2026-01-29 | META | 10-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Meta is officially stating 'superintelligence' (Artificial General Intelligence) as a core investment objective. This is a massive leap from standard machine learning and requires unprecedented capita…
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| 2026-01-29 | TSLA | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Tesla is quietly partnering with Samsung to onshore the manufacturing of its custom AI chips. This signals a massive capital commitment to internalizing AI compute and a strategic move to de-risk its …
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| 2026-01-28 | MSFT | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
The $155B in not-yet-commenced operating leases is staggering -- it represents datacentre capacity that Microsoft has contractually committed to but hasn't yet begun using. This is more than Microsoft…
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| 2026-01-28 | MSFT | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Microsoft spent $29.9B on capex in a single quarter -- roughly $120B annualised -- nearly doubling from the prior year. With $261B in net PP&E and another $23B sitting in AP (equipment delivered but n…
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| 2026-01-28 | MSFT | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Commercial RPO doubling to $625B is an extraordinary number -- it implies Microsoft has contracted future revenue equivalent to roughly 2 years of total company revenue. The 110% growth rate, far exce…
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| 2026-01-26 | CRWV | 8-K | Wildcard | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
NVIDIA invested $2B directly into CoreWeave equity AND announced collaboration for 5+ gigawatts of AI factories by 2030. NVIDIA is now supplier, customer, and major shareholder. The 5GW target is enor…
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| 2026-01-23 | INTC | 10-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Intel is explicitly tying the survival and future of its x86 architecture to NVIDIA's AI dominance. By co-developing products and accepting a massive $5 billion equity injection from NVIDIA, Intel ali…
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| 2025-12-29 | INTC | 8-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Nvidia has completed a $5 billion direct equity investment into Intel. This is a historic, paradigm-shifting alliance between two semiconductor giants. For Intel, this provides a massive $5 billion ca…
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| 2025-12-11 | ORCL | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
RPO surged from $455B to $523B in one quarter — $68B increase. Only 10% converts in 12 months. $523B backlog dwarfs ~$62B annual revenue run-rate. RPO growth (15% QoQ) accelerating faster than revenue…
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| 2025-12-11 | ORCL | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Oracle is radically accelerating its capital expenditures, tripling its 1H capex year-over-year (and hitting $35.4 billion on a trailing 12-month basis). The company is betting its entire balance shee…
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| 2025-12-05 | SNOW | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
A third-party AI service agreement was signed in November 2025 (disclosed as subsequent event). While details are limited, this signals Snowflake is making commitments to external AI compute/inference…
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| 2025-11-19 | NVDA | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Buried in the XBRL taxonomy tags is a subsequent event disclosure involving Anthropic PBC dated November 19, 2025 (shortly after the quarter closed). This indicates NVIDIA has made a material financia…
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| 2025-11-19 | NVDA | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
NVIDIA is making a massive, unprecedented $5 billion strategic investment in Intel. This suggests a major geopolitical and supply chain hedge, likely aimed at securing domestic foundry capacity, break…
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| 2025-11-19 | NVDA | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
NVIDIA is aggressively deploying its hardware profits to buy equity in the world's leading foundation model companies. By committing up to $10 billion to Anthropic and opening an LOI with OpenAI, NVID…
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| 2025-11-19 | NVDA | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
NVIDIA is deploying at least $15 billion of its massive balance sheet directly into its ecosystem. By investing heavily in its largest customers (OpenAI, Anthropic), NVIDIA is essentially vendor-finan…
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| 2025-11-19 | NVDA | 10-Q | Wildcard | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
The US government is quietly proposing to extract a 15% royalty or 'tax' on export-licensed AI chips. This is an unprecedented mechanism where the government seeks to directly capture a massive share …
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| 2025-11-19 | NVDA | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Buried in the filing is a massive $4.5 billion write-off specific to the H20 chip (the downgraded version designed for China). This indicates that Chinese demand for crippled, export-compliant chips h…
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| 2025-11-19 | NVDA | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Nvidia is deploying its massive free cash flow directly into the foundational layer of the AI ecosystem by taking multi-billion dollar stakes in the two leading frontier model developers. This capital…
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| 2025-11-19 | NVDA | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Nvidia is making an unprecedented direct equity investment in rival Intel. Given the mention of "partner's ability to scale production," this is a massive strategic bet on Intel Foundry Services (IFS)…
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| 2025-11-06 | INTC | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Intel swung from $9.1B operating loss to $683M income — $9.7B improvement YoY. Altera gain ($5.5B) flatters this, but every segment improved: CCG +31%, DCAI +52%, Foundry loss narrowed 60%.
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| 2025-11-06 | INTC | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
NVIDIA and SoftBank are injecting a combined $7 billion in direct equity into Intel. This is a monumental market signal that the world's most important AI hardware players are actively funding and sec…
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Outbound Impacts — NVDA's filings affect these tickers
| Date | Filing | Target | Cat | Dir for target | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | 10-K | AVGO | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-25 | 10-K | MRVL | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-25 | 10-K | AMZN | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-25 | 10-K | GOOG | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-25 | 10-K | MSFT | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-25 | 10-K | INTC | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-25 | 10-K | AMD | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-25 | 10-K | AMD | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-25 | 10-K | INTC | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-25 | 10-K | AMAT | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-25 | 10-K | LRCX | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-25 | 10-K | MSFT | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-25 | 10-K | GOOG | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-25 | 10-K | META | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-19 | 10-Q | INTC | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-19 | 10-Q | TSM | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-19 | 10-Q | AMD | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-19 | 10-Q | MSFT | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-19 | 10-Q | AMZN | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-19 | 10-Q | GOOG | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-19 | 10-Q | INTC | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-19 | 10-Q | AMD | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-19 | 10-Q | GOOG | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-19 | 10-Q | AMZN | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-19 | 10-Q | MSFT | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-19 | 10-Q | INTC | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-19 | 10-Q | TSM | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
Catalysts
| Date | Type | Confidence | Source | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | earnings | confirmed | yfinance | Next earnings (per yfinance) |
| 2026-05-21 | earnings | confirmed | yfinance | Next earnings (per yfinance) |