MRVL Marvell Technology Inc. WATCHLIST
8 inbound impacts
from 4 source companies
in last 180 days
3
Bullish impacts
0
Bearish impacts
5
Neutral impacts
5
Max significance
2
High-magnitude
Historical Base Rates for MRVL
From prior setups in our DB. Returns are simple price (entry next-day open → close at horizon). Alpha is excess vs benchmark.
| Horizon | N | Hit % | Avg ret | Median ret | α vs SPY | α vs QQQ | α vs SOXX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d | 9 | 22.2% | +0.06% | -0.41% | +1.55% | +1.43% | +0.97% |
| 20d | 9 | 88.9% | +21.92% | +17.14% | +23.66% | +23.04% | +19.41% |
Top Live Signals affecting MRVL
| Score | Date | Source | Type | Cat | Dir | Conf | Mag | Horiz | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 2026-03-11 | MRVL | 10-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high | 730d |
Photonic Fabric closes the only remaining gap vs NVIDIA's NVLink moat at scale-up layer
MRVL paid $1.3B cash + 24.5M shares for Celestial AI's Photonic Fabric — the optical scale-up interconnect tech that competes directly with NVIDIA's proprietary NVLink at the chip-to-chip layer inside…
|
| 75 | 2026-03-11 | MRVL | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ▲ | 5/5 | high | 365d |
Cleaner narrative + capital fully redeployed into AI silicon
Auto ethernet sold for $2.5B cash with a $1.8B pre-tax gain. Two effects: (1) clean balance sheet to fund the Celestial + XConn acquisitions (used most of the proceeds); (2) the story is now ENTIRELY …
|
| 36 | 2026-03-11 | MRVL | 10-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | medium | 1095d |
2nm design wins lock multi-year revenue with hyperscale customers
MRVL is on the leading-edge node cadence — currently shipping 5nm, ramping 3nm, designing 2nm. This capability is one of only ~5 fabless companies that can do leading-edge custom ASIC at hyperscaler-g…
|
| 34 | 2026-02-25 | NVDA | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
NVIDIA is opening its historically closed, proprietary NVLink interconnect to allow third-party custom silicon (like a hyperscaler's in-house AI chip) to plug directly into NVIDIA's ecosystem. This is…
|
||
| 32 | 2026-02-20 | ALAB | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
China revenue ramp to ~30% of total creates massive export control exposure. One policy change could vaporise a third of revenue. Market may not be pricing this binary risk.
|
||
| 29 | 2026-02-06 | AMZN | 10-K | Future Bet | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Amazon's total capital expenditures exploded to $131.8 billion in 2025, up from $83 billion in 2024. AWS alone added $96.5 billion in net property and equipment in a single year (nearly doubling its 2…
|
||
| 7 | 2025-10-31 | AMZN | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Amazon is injecting billions in fresh capital into Anthropic throughout 2025, pushing its total exposure to over $38 billion (notes plus preferred stock). Crucially, the filing explicitly links this p…
|
||
| 5 | 2026-02-10 | ALAB | 8-K | Future Bet | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Amazon signed a warrant-backed purchasing agreement with Astera Labs for up to $6.5B in connectivity products. Massive commitment validating Astera's full product roadmap across all three categories i…
|
All Inbound Impacts (8)
Every signal pointing at MRVL from another company's filings.
| Date | From | Filing | Cat | Dir | Conf | Mag | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | MRVL | 10-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Photonic Fabric closes the only remaining gap vs NVIDIA's NVLink moat at scale-up layer
MRVL paid $1.3B cash + 24.5M shares for Celestial AI's Photonic Fabric — the optical scale-up interconnect tech that competes directly with NVIDIA's proprietary NVLink at the chip-to-chip layer inside…
|
| 2026-03-11 | MRVL | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Cleaner narrative + capital fully redeployed into AI silicon
Auto ethernet sold for $2.5B cash with a $1.8B pre-tax gain. Two effects: (1) clean balance sheet to fund the Celestial + XConn acquisitions (used most of the proceeds); (2) the story is now ENTIRELY …
|
| 2026-03-11 | MRVL | 10-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | medium |
2nm design wins lock multi-year revenue with hyperscale customers
MRVL is on the leading-edge node cadence — currently shipping 5nm, ramping 3nm, designing 2nm. This capability is one of only ~5 fabless companies that can do leading-edge custom ASIC at hyperscaler-g…
|
| 2026-02-25 | NVDA | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
NVIDIA is opening its historically closed, proprietary NVLink interconnect to allow third-party custom silicon (like a hyperscaler's in-house AI chip) to plug directly into NVIDIA's ecosystem. This is…
|
||
| 2026-02-20 | ALAB | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
China revenue ramp to ~30% of total creates massive export control exposure. One policy change could vaporise a third of revenue. Market may not be pricing this binary risk.
|
||
| 2026-02-10 | ALAB | 8-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Amazon signed a warrant-backed purchasing agreement with Astera Labs for up to $6.5B in connectivity products. Massive commitment validating Astera's full product roadmap across all three categories i…
|
||
| 2026-02-06 | AMZN | 10-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Amazon's total capital expenditures exploded to $131.8 billion in 2025, up from $83 billion in 2024. AWS alone added $96.5 billion in net property and equipment in a single year (nearly doubling its 2…
|
||
| 2025-10-31 | AMZN | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Amazon is injecting billions in fresh capital into Anthropic throughout 2025, pushing its total exposure to over $38 billion (notes plus preferred stock). Crucially, the filing explicitly links this p…
|
Outbound Impacts — MRVL's filings affect these tickers
| Date | Filing | Target | Cat | Dir for target | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | 10-K | NVDA | Future Bet | ▼ | Erodes NVLink scale-up moat over multiple node cycles |
| 2026-03-11 | 10-K | AMZN | Future Bet | ▲ | Validates AWS's Trainium custom-silicon path with merchant interconnect |
| 2026-03-11 | 10-K | GOOG | Future Bet | ▲ | Same — Google Axion also relies on MRVL custom silicon stack |
| 2026-03-11 | 10-K | IFNNY | Strategic Shift | ▲ | Infineon gains the auto ethernet asset at scale |
| 2026-03-11 | 10-K | TSM | Future Bet | ▲ | TSMC N2 ramp benefits with each new MRVL design win |
Catalysts
| Date | Type | Confidence | Source | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | earnings | confirmed | yfinance | Next earnings (per yfinance) |
| 2026-05-29 | earnings | confirmed | yfinance | Next earnings (per yfinance) |