ALAB Astera Labs Inc. WATCHLIST
12 inbound impacts
from 3 source companies
in last 180 days
5
Bullish impacts
2
Bearish impacts
5
Neutral impacts
5
Max significance
3
High-magnitude
Historical Base Rates for ALAB
From prior setups in our DB. Returns are simple price (entry next-day open → close at horizon). Alpha is excess vs benchmark.
| Horizon | N | Hit % | Avg ret | Median ret | α vs SPY | α vs QQQ | α vs SOXX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d | 15 | 33.3% | -3.71% | -5.25% | -3.05% | -3.43% | -3.57% |
| 20d | 15 | 26.7% | -3.78% | -2.64% | -1.77% | -2.54% | -1.98% |
| 60d | 7 | 57.1% | +9.25% | +6.67% | +5.06% | +5.07% | -10.4% |
Top Live Signals affecting ALAB
| Score | Date | Source | Type | Cat | Dir | Conf | Mag | Horiz | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 2026-02-20 | ALAB | 10-K | Future Bet | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Astera is betting on silicon photonics integration — buying aiXscale gives them in-house co-packaged optics capability for next-gen AI interconnects. This positions them to capture the optical-electri…
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| 64 | 2026-02-20 | ALAB | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
China revenue ramp to ~30% of total creates massive export control exposure. One policy change could vaporise a third of revenue. Market may not be pricing this binary risk.
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| 30 | 2026-03-05 | CIEN | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Nubis acquisition positions Ciena for AI-specific data center optics — co-packaged optics and electrical active copper cables. Explicit pivot to capture AI interconnect spend inside the data center.
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| 25 | 2026-02-20 | ALAB | 10-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
115% YoY growth at $850M+ run rate signals ALAB is becoming a must-have in AI infrastructure buildouts. The growth rate at this scale suggests they're riding a structural shift, not a one-off cycle.
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| 25 | 2026-02-20 | ALAB | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Geographic revenue concentration in Asia (63%) signals where AI infrastructure buildout is actually happening. ALAB is effectively an Asia-driven growth story now, not a US one.
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| 25 | 2026-02-20 | ALAB | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Material weakness disclosure at this growth stage is a yellow flag — suggests the company is growing faster than its back-office can handle. Historically a precursor to restatements or audit issues.
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| 11 | 2026-02-10 | ALAB | 8-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon signed a warrant-backed purchasing agreement with Astera Labs for up to $6.5B in connectivity products. Massive commitment validating Astera's full product roadmap across all three categories i…
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| 6 | 2025-11-05 | ALAB | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
89% YoY quarterly growth shows ALAB's connectivity products are in pull-forward demand from hyperscaler AI cluster buildouts. The acceleration from prior quarters suggests expanding wallet share.
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| 6 | 2025-11-05 | ALAB | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Gross margin compression from IC-to-module mix shift signals ALAB is moving up the stack into more integrated solutions — lower margin but higher ASP and stickier customer relationships. Classic platf…
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| 4 | 2026-02-10 | ALAB | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon already held a prior warrant from October 2022 (pre-IPO). New warrant layers on top, showing the relationship is accelerating. Pre-IPO strategic relationship now deepening with growing commitme…
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All Inbound Impacts (12)
Every signal pointing at ALAB from another company's filings.
| Date | From | Filing | Cat | Dir | Conf | Mag | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | CIEN | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Nubis acquisition positions Ciena for AI-specific data center optics — co-packaged optics and electrical active copper cables. Explicit pivot to capture AI interconnect spend inside the data center.
|
||
| 2026-02-20 | ALAB | 10-K | Future Bet | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Astera is betting on silicon photonics integration — buying aiXscale gives them in-house co-packaged optics capability for next-gen AI interconnects. This positions them to capture the optical-electri…
|
| 2026-02-20 | ALAB | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
China revenue ramp to ~30% of total creates massive export control exposure. One policy change could vaporise a third of revenue. Market may not be pricing this binary risk.
|
| 2026-02-20 | ALAB | 10-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
115% YoY growth at $850M+ run rate signals ALAB is becoming a must-have in AI infrastructure buildouts. The growth rate at this scale suggests they're riding a structural shift, not a one-off cycle.
|
| 2026-02-20 | ALAB | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Geographic revenue concentration in Asia (63%) signals where AI infrastructure buildout is actually happening. ALAB is effectively an Asia-driven growth story now, not a US one.
|
| 2026-02-20 | ALAB | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Material weakness disclosure at this growth stage is a yellow flag — suggests the company is growing faster than its back-office can handle. Historically a precursor to restatements or audit issues.
|
| 2026-02-10 | ALAB | 8-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon signed a warrant-backed purchasing agreement with Astera Labs for up to $6.5B in connectivity products. Massive commitment validating Astera's full product roadmap across all three categories i…
|
| 2026-02-10 | ALAB | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon already held a prior warrant from October 2022 (pre-IPO). New warrant layers on top, showing the relationship is accelerating. Pre-IPO strategic relationship now deepening with growing commitme…
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| 2025-11-12 | INTC | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
By appointing Dr. Craig Barratt to the Board, Intel is telegraphing a critical strategic prioritization of AI connectivity, Ethernet, and silicon photonics. Board appointments dictate high-level capit…
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| 2025-11-05 | ALAB | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
89% YoY quarterly growth shows ALAB's connectivity products are in pull-forward demand from hyperscaler AI cluster buildouts. The acceleration from prior quarters suggests expanding wallet share.
|
| 2025-11-05 | ALAB | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Gross margin compression from IC-to-module mix shift signals ALAB is moving up the stack into more integrated solutions — lower margin but higher ASP and stickier customer relationships. Classic platf…
|
| 2025-10-22 | ALAB | 8-K | Future Bet | ▼ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Astera Labs acquiring aiXscale Photonics — strategic push into optical interconnects, the next frontier for AI data centre bandwidth as electrical interconnects hit physical limits. Bet on co-packaged…
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Outbound Impacts — ALAB's filings affect these tickers
| Date | Filing | Target | Cat | Dir for target | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | 10-K | LITE | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-20 | 10-K | COHR | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-20 | 10-K | MRVL | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-20 | 10-K | AVGO | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-10 | 8-K | AMZN | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-10 | 8-K | AVGO | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-10 | 8-K | MRVL | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-10 | 8-K | AMZN | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-22 | 8-K | AVGO | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-22 | 8-K | COHR | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-22 | 8-K | LITE | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
Catalysts
| Date | Type | Confidence | Source | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | earnings | confirmed | yfinance | Next earnings (per yfinance) |
| 2026-05-06 | earnings | confirmed | yfinance | Next earnings (per yfinance) |