INTC Intel Corp. WATCHLIST
30 inbound impacts
from 3 source companies
in last 180 days
8
Bullish impacts
6
Bearish impacts
16
Neutral impacts
5
Max significance
16
High-magnitude
Convergence Setup
▲ BULLISH Convergence score 15.2
4 events · 2 families · alignment 100%
Source families:
filingfund
Evidence Timeline
| Date | Family | Source | Dir | Mag | Mechanism | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | filing | INTC 8-K | ◆ | high | Filing company — direct subject of disclosure | 0.767 |
| 2026-04-03 | filing | INTC 8-K | ▲ | medium | Filing company — direct subject of disclosure | 0.25 |
| 2026-02-17 | fund | Atreides Management 13F | ▲ | high | 13F position — $17,857M | 0.144 |
| 2026-02-17 | fund | Dragoneer Investment Group 13F | ▲ | high | 13F position — $73,111M | 0.144 |
Historical Base Rates for INTC
From prior setups in our DB. Returns are simple price (entry next-day open → close at horizon). Alpha is excess vs benchmark.
| Horizon | N | Hit % | Avg ret | Median ret | α vs SPY | α vs QQQ | α vs SOXX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d | 75 | 58.7% | +3.09% | +0.75% | +3.05% | +2.44% | +1.61% |
| 20d | 73 | 90.4% | +14.57% | +8.16% | +12.54% | +11.39% | +6.75% |
| 60d | 59 | 98.3% | +41.3% | +29.47% | +35.23% | +33.38% | +19.83% |
Top Live Signals affecting INTC
| Score | Date | Source | Type | Cat | Dir | Conf | Mag | Horiz | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 2026-04-08 | INTC | 8-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Intel is abandoning its prior 'Smart Capital' co-investment strategy by spending $14.2 billion to buy out Apollo's stake in the Fab 34 joint venture, which was just established in 2024. By taking on $…
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| 52 | 2026-01-23 | INTC | 10-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Intel is explicitly tying the survival and future of its x86 architecture to NVIDIA's AI dominance. By co-developing products and accepting a massive $5 billion equity injection from NVIDIA, Intel ali…
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| 52 | 2026-01-23 | INTC | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
This is a thesis-changing admission that Intel is prepared to abandon its core identity as a leading-edge integrated device manufacturer (IDM). If it fails to attract major external customers for its …
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| 52 | 2026-01-23 | INTC | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Intel has formally reversed its aggressive, capital-intensive 'shell ahead' global expansion strategy. By canceling European mega-fabs and slowing the flagship Ohio site, the company is prioritizing i…
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| 52 | 2026-01-23 | INTC | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
The signature block reveals that Lip-Bu Tan is now the CEO of Intel. Tan, the former CEO of Cadence Design Systems, is a semiconductor turnaround veteran who previously resigned from Intel's board in …
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| 52 | 2026-01-23 | INTC | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Intel Foundry being operationally separated as a subsidiary — board exploring full independence or external ownership. Intel admitting the integrated model failed and preparing to jettison its $10.3B/…
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| 52 | 2026-01-23 | INTC | 10-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Intel 14A process node may be paused or cancelled without an external anchor customer — the next-gen node that was supposed to restore competitiveness is now conditional on someone else paying for it.
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| 52 | 2026-01-23 | INTC | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Intel Foundry external revenue was only $125M for FY2025 against $10.3B in losses. The entire foundry thesis rests on future customers that haven't materialised. Market prices Intel Foundry as future …
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| 34 | 2026-02-25 | NVDA | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
NVIDIA is opening its historically closed, proprietary NVLink interconnect to allow third-party custom silicon (like a hyperscaler's in-house AI chip) to plug directly into NVIDIA's ecosystem. This is…
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| 34 | 2026-02-25 | NVDA | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
The U.S. government is informally demanding an unprecedented 15% revenue cut on licensed chip exports to China. This acts as a massive, uncodified shadow tax on tech exports. Most investors will miss …
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All Inbound Impacts (30)
Every signal pointing at INTC from another company's filings.
| Date | From | Filing | Cat | Dir | Conf | Mag | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | INTC | 8-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Intel is abandoning its prior 'Smart Capital' co-investment strategy by spending $14.2 billion to buy out Apollo's stake in the Fab 34 joint venture, which was just established in 2024. By taking on $…
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| 2026-04-03 | INTC | 8-K | Strategic Shift | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
The explicit phrasing that 'Intel Corporation determined' the separation indicates an involuntary departure of a top-level executive. Following the previous quarter's board consolidation and change in…
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| 2026-03-03 | INTC | 8-K | Strategic Shift | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Intel is transitioning its board leadership and shrinking its board size. By replacing Frank Yeary (whose background is primarily in finance and M&A) with Dr. Craig Barratt (a veteran silicon engineer…
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| 2026-02-25 | NVDA | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
NVIDIA is opening its historically closed, proprietary NVLink interconnect to allow third-party custom silicon (like a hyperscaler's in-house AI chip) to plug directly into NVIDIA's ecosystem. This is…
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| 2026-02-25 | NVDA | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
The U.S. government is informally demanding an unprecedented 15% revenue cut on licensed chip exports to China. This acts as a massive, uncodified shadow tax on tech exports. Most investors will miss …
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| 2026-02-04 | AMD | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Nvidia is using its massive capital advantage to directly invest in and partner with Intel. This is a monumental market shift where the dominant GPU maker (Nvidia) is propping up AMD's primary CPU riv…
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| 2026-02-04 | AMD | 10-K | Wildcard | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
The U.S. government is attempting to extract a 15% revenue cut from authorized sales of AI chips to China. This is an unprecedented shift in U.S. policy, transforming export controls from a strict nat…
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| 2026-01-23 | INTC | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
This administrative filing reveals the structural reality of Intel's U.S. government subsidies (likely via the CHIPS Act). The U.S. Department of Commerce didn't just issue grants or debt; it acquired…
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| 2026-01-23 | INTC | 10-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Intel is explicitly tying the survival and future of its x86 architecture to NVIDIA's AI dominance. By co-developing products and accepting a massive $5 billion equity injection from NVIDIA, Intel ali…
|
| 2026-01-23 | INTC | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
This is a thesis-changing admission that Intel is prepared to abandon its core identity as a leading-edge integrated device manufacturer (IDM). If it fails to attract major external customers for its …
|
| 2026-01-23 | INTC | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Intel has formally reversed its aggressive, capital-intensive 'shell ahead' global expansion strategy. By canceling European mega-fabs and slowing the flagship Ohio site, the company is prioritizing i…
|
| 2026-01-23 | INTC | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
The signature block reveals that Lip-Bu Tan is now the CEO of Intel. Tan, the former CEO of Cadence Design Systems, is a semiconductor turnaround veteran who previously resigned from Intel's board in …
|
| 2026-01-23 | INTC | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Intel Foundry being operationally separated as a subsidiary — board exploring full independence or external ownership. Intel admitting the integrated model failed and preparing to jettison its $10.3B/…
|
| 2026-01-23 | INTC | 10-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Intel 14A process node may be paused or cancelled without an external anchor customer — the next-gen node that was supposed to restore competitiveness is now conditional on someone else paying for it.
|
| 2026-01-23 | INTC | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Intel Foundry external revenue was only $125M for FY2025 against $10.3B in losses. The entire foundry thesis rests on future customers that haven't materialised. Market prices Intel Foundry as future …
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| 2026-01-23 | INTC | 10-K | Language Shift | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
SEC accounting consultation ongoing with no resolution disclosed. Unresolved SEC consultations in a company with this much restructuring complexity is a material uncertainty.
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| 2025-12-29 | INTC | 8-K | Strategic Shift | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Nvidia has completed a $5 billion direct equity investment into Intel. This is a historic, paradigm-shifting alliance between two semiconductor giants. For Intel, this provides a massive $5 billion ca…
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| 2025-11-19 | NVDA | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
NVIDIA is making a massive, unprecedented $5 billion strategic investment in Intel. This suggests a major geopolitical and supply chain hedge, likely aimed at securing domestic foundry capacity, break…
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| 2025-11-19 | NVDA | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
NVIDIA is deploying at least $15 billion of its massive balance sheet directly into its ecosystem. By investing heavily in its largest customers (OpenAI, Anthropic), NVIDIA is essentially vendor-finan…
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| 2025-11-19 | NVDA | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Nvidia is making an unprecedented direct equity investment in rival Intel. Given the mention of "partner's ability to scale production," this is a massive strategic bet on Intel Foundry Services (IFS)…
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| 2025-11-12 | INTC | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
By appointing Dr. Craig Barratt to the Board, Intel is telegraphing a critical strategic prioritization of AI connectivity, Ethernet, and silicon photonics. Board appointments dictate high-level capit…
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| 2025-11-06 | INTC | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Intel swung from $9.1B operating loss to $683M income — $9.7B improvement YoY. Altera gain ($5.5B) flatters this, but every segment improved: CCG +31%, DCAI +52%, Foundry loss narrowed 60%.
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| 2025-11-06 | INTC | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Shares outstanding jumped 10% in three quarters from government warrants tied to CHIPS Act. Turnaround financed with equity, not earnings. 10% dilution means EPS needs 10% higher earnings just to stay…
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| 2025-11-06 | INTC | 10-Q | Wildcard | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
$7.1B derivative liabilities with $5.6B from Escrowed Shares — massive overhang. These shares could flood market upon release, creating selling pressure equal to ~8% of market cap. Ticking dilution bo…
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| 2025-11-06 | INTC | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
NVIDIA and SoftBank are injecting a combined $7 billion in direct equity into Intel. This is a monumental market signal that the world's most important AI hardware players are actively funding and sec…
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| 2025-11-06 | INTC | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Intel has effectively entered into a quasi-nationalization agreement. By issuing a 5.8% equity stake to the US Government to accelerate $8.9 billion in CHIPs Act funding, and attaching a 'poison pill'…
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| 2025-11-06 | INTC | 10-Q | Language Shift | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Management is explicitly warning that the survival of their sub-2nm roadmap (14A and beyond) is entirely dependent on securing a major external customer. If they fail, they will capitulate on process …
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| 2025-11-06 | INTC | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Intel has executed a major structural contraction by surrendering majority control of its FPGA business (Altera) to private equity. This is a severe liquidity preservation move, trading away long-term…
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| 2025-11-06 | INTC | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Buried in the risk factors is a warning that Intel's current financial statements are subject to potential SEC restatement. The unprecedented nature of the US Government taking an equity stake has cre…
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| 2025-11-05 | AMD | 10-Q | Wildcard | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
NVIDIA is directly investing in and partnering with Intel to collaborate on data center and client platforms. This is a massive, landscape-altering alliance that pairs the dominant GPU leader with the…
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Outbound Impacts — INTC's filings affect these tickers
| Date | Filing | Target | Cat | Dir for target | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 8-K | APO | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-01-23 | 8-K | TSM | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-01-23 | 10-K | NVDA | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-01-23 | 10-K | TSM | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-01-23 | 10-K | CDNS | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-01-23 | 10-K | SNPS | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-01-23 | 10-K | TSM | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-01-23 | 10-K | TSM | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-01-23 | 10-K | TSM | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-12-29 | 8-K | NVDA | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-12-29 | 8-K | TSM | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-12 | 8-K | ALAB | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-06 | 10-Q | AMD | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-06 | 10-Q | NVDA | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-06 | 10-Q | NVDA | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-06 | 10-Q | TSM | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-06 | 10-Q | ARM | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-06 | 10-Q | TSM | Language Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-06 | 10-Q | ASML | Language Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-06 | 10-Q | AMAT | Language Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-06 | 10-Q | AMD | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
Catalysts
| Date | Type | Confidence | Source | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | earnings | confirmed | yfinance | Next earnings (per yfinance) |
| 2026-04-24 | earnings | confirmed | yfinance | Next earnings (per yfinance) |