TSM Taiwan Semiconductor WATCHLIST
13 inbound impacts
from 5 source companies
in last 180 days
1
Bullish impacts
0
Bearish impacts
12
Neutral impacts
5
Max significance
0
High-magnitude
Historical Base Rates for TSM
From prior setups in our DB. Returns are simple price (entry next-day open → close at horizon). Alpha is excess vs benchmark.
| Horizon | N | Hit % | Avg ret | Median ret | α vs SPY | α vs QQQ | α vs SOXX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d | 25 | 60.0% | +1.47% | +2.12% | +1.7% | +1.52% | +0.53% |
| 20d | 25 | 76.0% | +10.03% | +11.98% | +8.83% | +8.58% | +2.91% |
| 60d | 17 | 100.0% | +21.79% | +22.22% | +17.63% | +16.59% | +3.06% |
Top Live Signals affecting TSM
| Score | Date | Source | Type | Cat | Dir | Conf | Mag | Horiz | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 2026-01-29 | META | 10-K | Future Bet | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Meta is formally committing resources to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), which they are explicitly terming 'superintelligence'. They are no longer just building AI to rank feeds or ge…
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| 27 | 2026-01-29 | TSLA | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Tesla is quietly partnering with Samsung to onshore the manufacturing of its custom AI chips. This signals a massive capital commitment to internalizing AI compute and a strategic move to de-risk its …
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| 26 | 2026-01-23 | INTC | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
This is a thesis-changing admission that Intel is prepared to abandon its core identity as a leading-edge integrated device manufacturer (IDM). If it fails to attract major external customers for its …
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| 26 | 2026-01-23 | INTC | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
The signature block reveals that Lip-Bu Tan is now the CEO of Intel. Tan, the former CEO of Cadence Design Systems, is a semiconductor turnaround veteran who previously resigned from Intel's board in …
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| 26 | 2026-01-23 | INTC | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Intel Foundry being operationally separated as a subsidiary — board exploring full independence or external ownership. Intel admitting the integrated model failed and preparing to jettison its $10.3B/…
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| 26 | 2026-01-23 | INTC | 10-K | Future Bet | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Intel 14A process node may be paused or cancelled without an external anchor customer — the next-gen node that was supposed to restore competitiveness is now conditional on someone else paying for it.
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| 14 | 2026-03-11 | MRVL | 10-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 4/5 | low | 1095d |
TSMC N2 ramp benefits with each new MRVL design win
MRVL is on the leading-edge node cadence — currently shipping 5nm, ramping 3nm, designing 2nm. This capability is one of only ~5 fabless companies that can do leading-edge custom ASIC at hyperscaler-g…
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| 9 | 2025-11-19 | NVDA | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
NVIDIA is making a massive, unprecedented $5 billion strategic investment in Intel. This suggests a major geopolitical and supply chain hedge, likely aimed at securing domestic foundry capacity, break…
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| 9 | 2025-11-19 | NVDA | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Nvidia is making an unprecedented direct equity investment in rival Intel. Given the mention of "partner's ability to scale production," this is a massive strategic bet on Intel Foundry Services (IFS)…
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| 8 | 2025-11-06 | INTC | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
NVIDIA and SoftBank are injecting a combined $7 billion in direct equity into Intel. This is a monumental market signal that the world's most important AI hardware players are actively funding and sec…
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All Inbound Impacts (13)
Every signal pointing at TSM from another company's filings.
| Date | From | Filing | Cat | Dir | Conf | Mag | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | MRVL | 10-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 4/5 | low |
TSMC N2 ramp benefits with each new MRVL design win
MRVL is on the leading-edge node cadence — currently shipping 5nm, ramping 3nm, designing 2nm. This capability is one of only ~5 fabless companies that can do leading-edge custom ASIC at hyperscaler-g…
|
| 2026-01-29 | META | 10-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Meta is formally committing resources to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), which they are explicitly terming 'superintelligence'. They are no longer just building AI to rank feeds or ge…
|
||
| 2026-01-29 | TSLA | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Tesla is quietly partnering with Samsung to onshore the manufacturing of its custom AI chips. This signals a massive capital commitment to internalizing AI compute and a strategic move to de-risk its …
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| 2026-01-23 | INTC | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
This administrative filing reveals the structural reality of Intel's U.S. government subsidies (likely via the CHIPS Act). The U.S. Department of Commerce didn't just issue grants or debt; it acquired…
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| 2026-01-23 | INTC | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
This is a thesis-changing admission that Intel is prepared to abandon its core identity as a leading-edge integrated device manufacturer (IDM). If it fails to attract major external customers for its …
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| 2026-01-23 | INTC | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
The signature block reveals that Lip-Bu Tan is now the CEO of Intel. Tan, the former CEO of Cadence Design Systems, is a semiconductor turnaround veteran who previously resigned from Intel's board in …
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| 2026-01-23 | INTC | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Intel Foundry being operationally separated as a subsidiary — board exploring full independence or external ownership. Intel admitting the integrated model failed and preparing to jettison its $10.3B/…
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| 2026-01-23 | INTC | 10-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Intel 14A process node may be paused or cancelled without an external anchor customer — the next-gen node that was supposed to restore competitiveness is now conditional on someone else paying for it.
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| 2025-12-29 | INTC | 8-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Nvidia has completed a $5 billion direct equity investment into Intel. This is a historic, paradigm-shifting alliance between two semiconductor giants. For Intel, this provides a massive $5 billion ca…
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| 2025-11-19 | NVDA | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
NVIDIA is making a massive, unprecedented $5 billion strategic investment in Intel. This suggests a major geopolitical and supply chain hedge, likely aimed at securing domestic foundry capacity, break…
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| 2025-11-19 | NVDA | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Nvidia is making an unprecedented direct equity investment in rival Intel. Given the mention of "partner's ability to scale production," this is a massive strategic bet on Intel Foundry Services (IFS)…
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| 2025-11-06 | INTC | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
NVIDIA and SoftBank are injecting a combined $7 billion in direct equity into Intel. This is a monumental market signal that the world's most important AI hardware players are actively funding and sec…
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| 2025-11-06 | INTC | 10-Q | Language Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Management is explicitly warning that the survival of their sub-2nm roadmap (14A and beyond) is entirely dependent on securing a major external customer. If they fail, they will capitulate on process …
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Catalysts
| Date | Type | Confidence | Source | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | earnings | confirmed | yfinance | Next earnings (per yfinance) |