AMZN Amazon.com Inc. WATCHLIST
50 inbound impacts
from 11 source companies
in last 180 days
16
Bullish impacts
4
Bearish impacts
30
Neutral impacts
5
Max significance
18
High-magnitude
Historical Base Rates for AMZN
From prior setups in our DB. Returns are simple price (entry next-day open → close at horizon). Alpha is excess vs benchmark.
| Horizon | N | Hit % | Avg ret | Median ret | α vs SPY | α vs QQQ | α vs SOXX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d | 73 | 43.8% | +0.57% | -1.49% | +1.06% | +0.81% | -0.26% |
| 20d | 71 | 66.2% | +1.99% | +2.56% | +1.63% | +1.05% | -1.45% |
| 60d | 45 | 48.9% | +4.12% | -0.22% | -1.3% | -2.3% | -16.59% |
Top Live Signals affecting AMZN
| Score | Date | Source | Type | Cat | Dir | Conf | Mag | Horiz | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 2026-04-14 | AMZN | 8-K | Future Bet | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon is acquiring Globalstar, a satellite communications company operating a LEO constellation. This signals Amazon doubling down on space-based connectivity beyond Project Kuiper — acquiring existi…
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| 58 | 2026-02-06 | AMZN | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Buried in the Board of Directors list is the addition of Andrew Ng, one of the world's most prominent artificial intelligence pioneers and former head of Google Brain/Baidu AI. Adding a pure-play AI l…
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| 58 | 2026-02-06 | AMZN | 10-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon increased its capital expenditures by a staggering $50.6 billion year-over-year (+65%), entirely driven by AWS and AI infrastructure. They are committing unprecedented levels of capital to gene…
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| 58 | 2026-02-06 | AMZN | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon is burying a massive, unannounced initiative named 'Amazon Leo' in its forward guidance, explicitly budgeting $1 billion in incremental costs just for Q1 2026 to 'scale' it. A $4 billion annual…
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| 58 | 2026-02-06 | AMZN | 10-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon's total capital expenditures exploded to $131.8 billion in 2025, up from $83 billion in 2024. AWS alone added $96.5 billion in net property and equipment in a single year (nearly doubling its 2…
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| 58 | 2026-02-06 | AMZN | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon's financial exposure to Anthropic has grown to staggering proportions, with tens of billions in fair value gains recorded in 2025 alone. Crucially, Amazon explicitly links this investment to An…
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| 40 | 2026-03-20 | SNOW | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Snowflake is fundamentally shifting its identity from a purely analytical database (OLAP) to a hybrid transactional and analytical processing (HTAP) platform. By offering a fully managed Postgres data…
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| 40 | 2026-03-20 | SNOW | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Snowflake is fundamentally shifting its business model from a proprietary, walled-garden storage architecture to an open-compute model. By natively supporting Apache Iceberg and allowing data to resid…
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| 34 | 2026-03-16 | AMZN | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Following an unprecedented $37 billion U.S. debt offering in the prior quarter, Amazon is aggressively tapping European debt markets for an additional €14.5 billion (approximately $15.8 billion USD). …
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| 34 | 2026-04-14 | AMZN | 8-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon filing under Rule 425 (written communications pursuant to Securities Act) indicates this is a stock-for-stock or mixed consideration deal requiring shareholder approval. The regulatory approval…
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All Inbound Impacts (50)
Every signal pointing at AMZN from another company's filings.
| Date | From | Filing | Cat | Dir | Conf | Mag | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | AMZN | 8-K | Future Bet | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon is acquiring Globalstar, a satellite communications company operating a LEO constellation. This signals Amazon doubling down on space-based connectivity beyond Project Kuiper — acquiring existi…
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| 2026-04-14 | AMZN | 8-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon filing under Rule 425 (written communications pursuant to Securities Act) indicates this is a stock-for-stock or mixed consideration deal requiring shareholder approval. The regulatory approval…
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| 2026-03-20 | SNOW | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Snowflake is fundamentally shifting its identity from a purely analytical database (OLAP) to a hybrid transactional and analytical processing (HTAP) platform. By offering a fully managed Postgres data…
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| 2026-03-20 | SNOW | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Snowflake is fundamentally shifting its business model from a proprietary, walled-garden storage architecture to an open-compute model. By natively supporting Apache Iceberg and allowing data to resid…
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| 2026-03-16 | AMZN | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Following an unprecedented $37 billion U.S. debt offering in the prior quarter, Amazon is aggressively tapping European debt markets for an additional €14.5 billion (approximately $15.8 billion USD). …
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| 2026-03-16 | AMZN | 8-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon is issuing ultra-long duration debt in Europe, locking in 38-year capital at 4.850%. Similar to the 40- and 50-year USD debt issued in the prior quarter, securing multi-decade financing abroad …
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| 2026-03-13 | AMZN | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon is raising a historic $37 billion in a single debt offering. When connected to the prior quarter's disclosure of a pending $35 billion capital commitment to OpenAI, this massive bond issuance i…
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| 2026-03-13 | AMZN | 8-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon is issuing $6 billion in ultra-long duration debt, locking in capital for 40 and 50 years at roughly 6% interest. Securing half-century capital at these rates indicates Amazon is financing mult…
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| 2026-03-11 | MRVL | 10-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 4/5 | low |
Validates AWS's Trainium custom-silicon path with merchant interconnect
MRVL paid $1.3B cash + 24.5M shares for Celestial AI's Photonic Fabric — the optical scale-up interconnect tech that competes directly with NVIDIA's proprietary NVLink at the chip-to-chip layer inside…
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| 2026-03-11 | ORCL | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Oracle has more than tripled its capital expenditures year-over-year, spending over $39 billion in just nine months. This signals an incredibly aggressive infrastructure build-out to support Oracle Cl…
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| 2026-03-06 | GOOG | 8-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
While Waymo's maturity is well-known to the market, elevating Wing (drone delivery) to sit alongside Waymo in a core, high-value executive compensation package reveals a major bet on the immediate via…
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| 2026-02-27 | AMZN | 8-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon is committing a staggering $50 billion in total capital ($15 billion upfront, $35 billion committed) to OpenAI. This is one of the largest corporate investments in history, signaling that Amazo…
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| 2026-02-27 | AMZN | 8-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon is breaking Microsoft Azure's monopoly on OpenAI's infrastructure and model distribution. By securing OpenAI as a massive AWS cloud customer and bringing OpenAI models natively to AWS, Amazon i…
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| 2026-02-27 | AMZN | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
By explicitly structuring a massive $35 billion capital commitment around an OpenAI 'Public Listing Transaction', Amazon is signaling that an OpenAI IPO or direct listing in the U.S. is not just a the…
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| 2026-02-25 | NVDA | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
NVIDIA is opening its historically closed, proprietary NVLink interconnect to allow third-party custom silicon (like a hyperscaler's in-house AI chip) to plug directly into NVIDIA's ecosystem. This is…
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| 2026-02-11 | CFLT | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
IBM acquiring Confluent at $35.00/share in cash is the single most consequential event in this filing. It represents a strategic bet by IBM that data streaming infrastructure is critical to enterprise…
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| 2026-02-10 | ALAB | 8-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Amazon signed a warrant-backed purchasing agreement with Astera Labs for up to $6.5B in connectivity products. Massive commitment validating Astera's full product roadmap across all three categories i…
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| 2026-02-10 | ALAB | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Amazon already held a prior warrant from October 2022 (pre-IPO). New warrant layers on top, showing the relationship is accelerating. Pre-IPO strategic relationship now deepening with growing commitme…
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| 2026-02-06 | AMZN | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Buried in the Board of Directors list is the addition of Andrew Ng, one of the world's most prominent artificial intelligence pioneers and former head of Google Brain/Baidu AI. Adding a pure-play AI l…
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| 2026-02-06 | AMZN | 10-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon increased its capital expenditures by a staggering $50.6 billion year-over-year (+65%), entirely driven by AWS and AI infrastructure. They are committing unprecedented levels of capital to gene…
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| 2026-02-06 | AMZN | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon is burying a massive, unannounced initiative named 'Amazon Leo' in its forward guidance, explicitly budgeting $1 billion in incremental costs just for Q1 2026 to 'scale' it. A $4 billion annual…
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| 2026-02-06 | AMZN | 10-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon's total capital expenditures exploded to $131.8 billion in 2025, up from $83 billion in 2024. AWS alone added $96.5 billion in net property and equipment in a single year (nearly doubling its 2…
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| 2026-02-06 | AMZN | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon's financial exposure to Anthropic has grown to staggering proportions, with tens of billions in fair value gains recorded in 2025 alone. Crucially, Amazon explicitly links this investment to An…
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| 2026-02-06 | AMZN | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon has quietly rebranded its top legal officer's role from 'General Counsel' and 'Public Policy' to 'Chief Global Affairs & Legal Officer'. This nomenclature shift strongly signals that Amazon is …
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| 2026-02-06 | AMZN | 10-K | Language Shift | ▼ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon has explicitly carved out 'artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies' in its human capital risk disclosures. By specifically identifying this subset of engineering, management i…
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| 2026-02-06 | AMZN | 10-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon is explicitly acknowledging its strict dependency on a small group of GPU suppliers to build its AI infrastructure. By formalizing this as a material risk factor, Amazon highlights the extreme …
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| 2026-02-05 | AFRM | 10-Q | Wildcard | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Amazon warrant vesting roll-off creating massive non-recurring S&M tailwind ($91.9M decrease in 6-month expense, -47%). Shopify warrant expense also dropped 69%. These were masking true operating prof…
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| 2026-01-29 | META | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Meta defeated the FTC's landmark antitrust lawsuit aimed at unwinding its acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp. Surviving this breakup attempt secures Meta's core ecosystem and signals that the FTC'…
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| 2026-01-28 | MSFT | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Microsoft Cloud margin declining 3 percentage points to 67% while revenue grows 23% is a critical signal. The margin compression is explicitly attributed to AI infrastructure scaling -- meaning Micros…
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| 2026-01-28 | MSFT | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Commercial RPO doubling to $625B is an extraordinary number -- it implies Microsoft has contracted future revenue equivalent to roughly 2 years of total company revenue. The 110% growth rate, far exce…
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| 2025-12-11 | ORCL | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Oracle's backlog (RPO) exploded by an unprecedented $426 billion year-over-year, a greater than 5x increase. This massive jump is buried at the end of the filing and indicates Oracle has signed histor…
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| 2025-12-08 | MSFT | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
The presence and subsequent rejection of this proposal highlights Microsoft's strategic choice to aggressively supply AI and machine learning tools to the oil and gas sector. By resisting additional r…
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| 2025-11-20 | AMZN | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon is raising a massive $15 billion cash war chest via a multi-tranche debt offering, locking in yields on maturities spanning up to 40 years (2065). For a highly cash-generative business to take …
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| 2025-11-20 | AMZN | 8-K | Future Bet | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon is securing a massive $15 billion war chest through a multi-tranche debt offering, notably including $5 billion in ultra-long-duration 30-year and 40-year notes (maturing 2055 and 2065). Raisin…
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| 2025-11-19 | NVDA | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
NVIDIA is aggressively deploying its hardware profits to buy equity in the world's leading foundation model companies. By committing up to $10 billion to Anthropic and opening an LOI with OpenAI, NVID…
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| 2025-11-19 | NVDA | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Nvidia is deploying its massive free cash flow directly into the foundational layer of the AI ecosystem by taking multi-billion dollar stakes in the two leading frontier model developers. This capital…
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| 2025-11-06 | AFRM | 8-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Affirm locked in 5-year Amazon BNPL partnership renewal through Jan 2031 with auto-renewal. Amazon is Affirm's largest merchant partner. Removes key overhang that contract could be lost.
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| 2025-10-31 | AMZN | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
A newly passed federal tax law is directly subsidizing Amazon's massive data center buildout. By allowing 100% accelerated depreciation, the government is dramatically improving the cash flow profile …
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| 2025-10-31 | AMZN | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon is accelerating its capital expenditures at an unprecedented rate, jumping over 60% year-over-year to $34.2B in a single quarter. This signals an astronomical, ongoing arms race in generative A…
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| 2025-10-31 | AMZN | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon is doubling down on its generative AI model partner, Anthropic, committing another $1.4B in Q4 2025. More notably, Anthropic's valuation has surged so dramatically that Amazon recognized a $10.…
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| 2025-10-31 | AMZN | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon has nearly doubled its AWS capital expenditures year-over-year, deploying a staggering $64.8 billion into AWS infrastructure in just nine months. This indicates a historic, unprecedented accele…
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| 2025-10-31 | AMZN | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon is injecting billions in fresh capital into Anthropic throughout 2025, pushing its total exposure to over $38 billion (notes plus preferred stock). Crucially, the filing explicitly links this p…
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| 2025-10-31 | AMZN | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
A newly enacted 2025 tax law allows for 100% accelerated depreciation. For a company deploying nearly $100 billion in annual consolidated capex, this represents a massive, immediate subsidy to free ca…
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| 2025-10-31 | AMZN | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon is betting the farm on generative AI infrastructure, accelerating its capital expenditures to a staggering $34.2 billion in a single quarter (a ~$136B annual run-rate). This represents a massiv…
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| 2025-10-31 | AMZN | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Despite explosive AWS growth and massive capital expenditures, Amazon is executing a massive human capital restructuring. A $1.8 billion severance charge indicates widespread, permanent layoffs. The c…
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| 2025-10-30 | GOOG | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Despite public reports in mid-2024 that Alphabet's $23 billion acquisition of cybersecurity firm Wiz had fallen apart, this forward-looking statement explicitly references the pending closing and inte…
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| 2025-10-30 | GOOG | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Alphabet is making its largest acquisition in history by purchasing Wiz for $32 billion in cash. This is a massive, thesis-altering bet that enterprise cloud market share will increasingly be won or l…
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| 2025-10-30 | META | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Meta has historically relied almost exclusively on its own proprietary data centers for infrastructure. Committing a staggering $40 billion to third-party cloud providers is a massive structural shift…
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| 2025-10-29 | MSFT | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Microsoft recognized a massive $4.1 billion equity loss from OpenAI in a single quarter, a nearly 6x increase year-over-year. This staggering figure lays bare the astronomical operating costs and cash…
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| 2025-10-27 | CFLT | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
A new $125M non-cancelable cloud infrastructure commitment through 2030 is a major signal about expected cloud consumption growth. Companies do not lock into 5-year infrastructure obligations unless t…
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Outbound Impacts — AMZN's filings affect these tickers
| Date | Filing | Target | Cat | Dir for target | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | 8-K | GSAT | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-04-14 | 8-K | AAPL | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-04-14 | 8-K | TMUS | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-04-14 | 8-K | IRDM | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-04-14 | 8-K | IRDM | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-04-14 | 8-K | VSAT | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-27 | 8-K | MSFT | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-27 | 8-K | MSFT | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-06 | 10-K | MSFT | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-06 | 10-K | GOOG | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-06 | 10-K | NVDA | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-06 | 10-K | AMD | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-06 | 10-K | NVDA | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-06 | 10-K | AMD | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-06 | 10-K | MRVL | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-06 | 10-K | ANET | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-06 | 10-K | SMCI | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-06 | 10-K | VRT | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-06 | 10-K | NVDA | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-06 | 10-K | MSFT | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-06 | 10-K | GOOG | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-06 | 10-K | NVDA | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-06 | 10-K | AMD | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-31 | 10-Q | NVDA | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-31 | 10-Q | AMD | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-31 | 10-Q | MSFT | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-31 | 10-Q | GOOG | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-31 | 10-Q | NVDA | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-31 | 10-Q | AMD | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-31 | 10-Q | ANET | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-31 | 10-Q | MU | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-31 | 10-Q | SMCI | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-31 | 10-Q | NVDA | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-31 | 10-Q | AVGO | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-31 | 10-Q | MRVL | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-31 | 10-Q | NVDA | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-31 | 10-Q | ANET | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-31 | 10-Q | VRT | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-10-31 | 10-Q | AMD | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
Catalysts
| Date | Type | Confidence | Source | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | earnings | confirmed | yfinance | Next earnings (per yfinance) |
| 2026-04-30 | earnings | confirmed | yfinance | Next earnings (per yfinance) |