AFRM Affirm Holdings Inc. WATCHLIST
11 inbound impacts
from 1 source company
in last 180 days
8
Bullish impacts
2
Bearish impacts
1
Neutral impacts
5
Max significance
5
High-magnitude
Historical Base Rates for AFRM
From prior setups in our DB. Returns are simple price (entry next-day open → close at horizon). Alpha is excess vs benchmark.
| Horizon | N | Hit % | Avg ret | Median ret | α vs SPY | α vs QQQ | α vs SOXX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d | 21 | 57.1% | -4.02% | +0.86% | -4.07% | -4.59% | -5.07% |
| 20d | 21 | 28.6% | -2.94% | -2.57% | -4.42% | -5.97% | -8.61% |
| 60d | 16 | 37.5% | +6.33% | -15.01% | +2.28% | +1.68% | -7.49% |
Top Live Signals affecting AFRM
| Score | Date | Source | Type | Cat | Dir | Conf | Mag | Horiz | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 2026-02-05 | AFRM | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Affirm pursuing its own bank charter via ILC structure. Fundamental shift from rent-a-charter model. If approved: direct origination, lower costs, deposit-gathering. Mirrors SoFi playbook while avoidi…
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| 44 | 2026-02-05 | AFRM | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Telegraphing massive non-cash earnings benefit from DTA valuation allowance release, likely within FY2026. Built on ~$3.1B accumulated losses. At 21% federal rate, release could exceed $600M. Language…
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| 44 | 2026-02-05 | AFRM | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Q2 FY2026 delivered $117.6M operating income vs operating loss a year ago. Revenue grew 30% while total opex grew only 15%. First fiscal half with meaningful sustained operating profitability.
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| 17 | 2026-02-05 | AFRM | 10-Q | Wildcard | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon warrant vesting roll-off creating massive non-recurring S&M tailwind ($91.9M decrease in 6-month expense, -47%). Shopify warrant expense also dropped 69%. These were masking true operating prof…
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| 17 | 2026-02-05 | AFRM | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Network effects compounding: consumers grew 23%, frequency grew 20%, total transactions grew ~47%. Affirm Card accelerating from 10% to 13% of transactions — wedge into everyday spending.
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| 15 | 2025-11-06 | AFRM | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
First quarter of GAAP operating profitability in Affirm's public history. $196.3M swing from loss to profit. S&M dropped 46% (warrant roll-off) while GMV grew 42%.
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| 6 | 2025-11-06 | AFRM | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
First mention of potential DTA release using 'reasonably possible within 12 months' language. Earliest signalling of potentially massive non-cash earnings benefit. Typically precedes release by 2-4 qu…
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| 6 | 2025-11-06 | AFRM | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
GMV growth accelerated to 42% with 0% APR loans surging 74%. Strategic shift toward merchant-subsidised financing — higher-fee, zero-interest products where merchants pay. Commands higher fees and gen…
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| 6 | 2025-11-06 | AFRM | 10-Q | Wildcard | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
New tax legislation that Affirm is still evaluating. For a company with massive accumulated NOLs approaching DTA release, any changes to NOL utilisation rules or tax rates could materially affect timi…
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| 0 | 2025-11-06 | AFRM | 8-K | Future Bet | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Affirm locked in 5-year Amazon BNPL partnership renewal through Jan 2031 with auto-renewal. Amazon is Affirm's largest merchant partner. Removes key overhang that contract could be lost.
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All Inbound Impacts (11)
Every signal pointing at AFRM from another company's filings.
| Date | From | Filing | Cat | Dir | Conf | Mag | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-05 | AFRM | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Affirm pursuing its own bank charter via ILC structure. Fundamental shift from rent-a-charter model. If approved: direct origination, lower costs, deposit-gathering. Mirrors SoFi playbook while avoidi…
|
| 2026-02-05 | AFRM | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Telegraphing massive non-cash earnings benefit from DTA valuation allowance release, likely within FY2026. Built on ~$3.1B accumulated losses. At 21% federal rate, release could exceed $600M. Language…
|
| 2026-02-05 | AFRM | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Q2 FY2026 delivered $117.6M operating income vs operating loss a year ago. Revenue grew 30% while total opex grew only 15%. First fiscal half with meaningful sustained operating profitability.
|
| 2026-02-05 | AFRM | 10-Q | Wildcard | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon warrant vesting roll-off creating massive non-recurring S&M tailwind ($91.9M decrease in 6-month expense, -47%). Shopify warrant expense also dropped 69%. These were masking true operating prof…
|
| 2026-02-05 | AFRM | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Network effects compounding: consumers grew 23%, frequency grew 20%, total transactions grew ~47%. Affirm Card accelerating from 10% to 13% of transactions — wedge into everyday spending.
|
| 2025-11-06 | AFRM | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
First quarter of GAAP operating profitability in Affirm's public history. $196.3M swing from loss to profit. S&M dropped 46% (warrant roll-off) while GMV grew 42%.
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| 2025-11-06 | AFRM | 8-K | Future Bet | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Affirm locked in 5-year Amazon BNPL partnership renewal through Jan 2031 with auto-renewal. Amazon is Affirm's largest merchant partner. Removes key overhang that contract could be lost.
|
| 2025-11-06 | AFRM | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
First mention of potential DTA release using 'reasonably possible within 12 months' language. Earliest signalling of potentially massive non-cash earnings benefit. Typically precedes release by 2-4 qu…
|
| 2025-11-06 | AFRM | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
GMV growth accelerated to 42% with 0% APR loans surging 74%. Strategic shift toward merchant-subsidised financing — higher-fee, zero-interest products where merchants pay. Commands higher fees and gen…
|
| 2025-11-06 | AFRM | 10-Q | Wildcard | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
New tax legislation that Affirm is still evaluating. For a company with massive accumulated NOLs approaching DTA release, any changes to NOL utilisation rules or tax rates could materially affect timi…
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| 2025-11-06 | AFRM | 8-K | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Amazon's warrant exercise price reset from $100 to $63.06 for post-Feb 2026 user acquisition. Significant concession by Affirm — Amazon extracted better economics in renewal. More dilutive to sharehol…
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Outbound Impacts — AFRM's filings affect these tickers
| Date | Filing | Target | Cat | Dir for target | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-05 | 10-Q | SOFI | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-05 | 10-Q | PYPL | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-05 | 10-Q | SQ | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-05 | 10-Q | AMZN | Wildcard | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-05 | 10-Q | SHOP | Wildcard | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-05 | 10-Q | V | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-05 | 10-Q | MA | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-02-05 | 10-Q | PYPL | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-06 | 8-K | AMZN | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-11-06 | 8-K | SQ | Future Bet | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
Catalysts
| Date | Type | Confidence | Source | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | earnings | confirmed | yfinance | Next earnings (per yfinance) |
| 2026-05-08 | earnings | confirmed | yfinance | Next earnings (per yfinance) |