MU Micron Technology Inc. WATCHLIST
11 inbound impacts
from 3 source companies
in last 180 days
3
Bullish impacts
2
Bearish impacts
6
Neutral impacts
5
Max significance
4
High-magnitude
Convergence Setup
▲ BULLISH Convergence score 1.3
7 events · 2 families · alignment 15%
Source families:
filingfund
⚠ 85% contradicting evidence
Evidence Timeline
| Date | Family | Source | Dir | Mag | Mechanism | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | filing | MU 8-K | ◆ | medium | Filing company — direct subject of disclosure | 0.169 |
| 2026-03-19 | filing | MU 10-Q | ▼ | high | Filing company — direct subject of disclosure | 0.3 |
| 2026-03-19 | filing | MU 10-Q | ▲ | high | Filing company — direct subject of disclosure | 0.3 |
| 2026-03-19 | filing | MU 10-Q | ◆ | high | Filing company — direct subject of disclosure | 0.3 |
| 2026-03-19 | filing | MU 10-Q | ▲ | medium | Filing company — direct subject of disclosure | 0.115 |
| 2026-03-19 | filing | MU 10-Q | ▼ | medium | Filing company — direct subject of disclosure | 0.115 |
| 2026-02-17 | fund | Atreides Management 13F | ▲ | high | 13F position — $199,787M | 0.144 |
Historical Base Rates for MU
From prior setups in our DB. Returns are simple price (entry next-day open → close at horizon). Alpha is excess vs benchmark.
| Horizon | N | Hit % | Avg ret | Median ret | α vs SPY | α vs QQQ | α vs SOXX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d | 18 | 44.4% | -1.84% | -1.13% | -0.67% | -0.32% | -0.71% |
| 20d | 12 | 91.7% | +19.26% | +8.99% | +17.67% | +17.19% | +11.24% |
| 60d | 12 | 100.0% | +61.72% | +76.4% | +58.12% | +57.43% | +45.44% |
Top Live Signals affecting MU
| Score | Date | Source | Type | Cat | Dir | Conf | Mag | Horiz | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 2026-03-19 | MU | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Revenue tripled YoY to $23.9B in Q2 FY2026; gross margin exploded from 37% to 74%. Not cyclical recovery — structural repricing of memory driven by AI supply-demand imbalance.
|
|
| 71 | 2026-03-19 | MU | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Long-term debt reduced from $14.0B to $9.6B in 6 months. Now net cash positive ($13.9B cash vs $9.6B debt). Capital structure transformation from leveraged cyclical to fortress balance sheet.
|
|
| 71 | 2026-03-19 | MU | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Pricing power broadening beyond HBM/hyperscale into mid-tier data centre, mobile, and auto/industrial. CMBU fell from 39% to 32% of revenue despite growing 47% because other segments surged. Supply sh…
|
|
| 27 | 2026-03-19 | MU | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
PP&E grew from $46.6B to $51.4B in H1. CHIPS Act incentives of $1.7B. New fab announced. Buyback reactivated ($650M). Massive capex + buybacks + debt paydown from operating cash flow alone.
|
|
| 27 | 2026-03-19 | MU | 10-Q | Wildcard | ▼ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
YMTC filed patent complaints across US, UK, Germany, and China covering substantially all products. Multi-jurisdictional escalation from Chinese competitor is a geopolitical wildcard.
|
|
| 25 | 2025-12-18 | MU | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
First appearance of allocation constraint language — demand exceeds Micron's supply capacity, forcing rationing. Shift from competing for share to allocating supply. CMBU (hyperscale/HBM) doubled YoY …
|
|
| 17 | 2026-03-25 | MU | 8-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Micron launched tender offers across six note series spanning 2031-2035, including notes issued less than a year earlier. Buying back recently issued debt signals dramatically improved cash generation…
|
|
| 9 | 2025-12-18 | MU | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Repaid $2.9B of debt in single quarter, funded entirely from $8.4B operating cash flow. First major deleveraging event in current cycle.
|
|
| 9 | 2025-12-18 | MU | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
CMBU surged to 39% of revenue (from 30% YoY) with 55% operating margin — highest of any segment. Confirms HBM's premium pricing power.
|
|
| 7 | 2025-10-31 | AMZN | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Amazon has nearly doubled its AWS capital expenditures year-over-year, deploying a staggering $64.8 billion into AWS infrastructure in just nine months. This indicates a historic, unprecedented accele…
|
All Inbound Impacts (11)
Every signal pointing at MU from another company's filings.
| Date | From | Filing | Cat | Dir | Conf | Mag | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | MU | 8-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Micron launched tender offers across six note series spanning 2031-2035, including notes issued less than a year earlier. Buying back recently issued debt signals dramatically improved cash generation…
|
| 2026-03-19 | MU | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ▼ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Revenue tripled YoY to $23.9B in Q2 FY2026; gross margin exploded from 37% to 74%. Not cyclical recovery — structural repricing of memory driven by AI supply-demand imbalance.
|
| 2026-03-19 | MU | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Long-term debt reduced from $14.0B to $9.6B in 6 months. Now net cash positive ($13.9B cash vs $9.6B debt). Capital structure transformation from leveraged cyclical to fortress balance sheet.
|
| 2026-03-19 | MU | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Pricing power broadening beyond HBM/hyperscale into mid-tier data centre, mobile, and auto/industrial. CMBU fell from 39% to 32% of revenue despite growing 47% because other segments surged. Supply sh…
|
| 2026-03-19 | MU | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
PP&E grew from $46.6B to $51.4B in H1. CHIPS Act incentives of $1.7B. New fab announced. Buyback reactivated ($650M). Massive capex + buybacks + debt paydown from operating cash flow alone.
|
| 2026-03-19 | MU | 10-Q | Wildcard | ▼ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
YMTC filed patent complaints across US, UK, Germany, and China covering substantially all products. Multi-jurisdictional escalation from Chinese competitor is a geopolitical wildcard.
|
| 2025-12-18 | MU | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ◆ | 5/5 | high |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
First appearance of allocation constraint language — demand exceeds Micron's supply capacity, forcing rationing. Shift from competing for share to allocating supply. CMBU (hyperscale/HBM) doubled YoY …
|
| 2025-12-18 | MU | 10-Q | Future Bet | ▲ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
Repaid $2.9B of debt in single quarter, funded entirely from $8.4B operating cash flow. First major deleveraging event in current cycle.
|
| 2025-12-18 | MU | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | 4/5 | medium |
Filing company — direct subject of disclosure
CMBU surged to 39% of revenue (from 30% YoY) with 55% operating margin — highest of any segment. Confirms HBM's premium pricing power.
|
| 2025-10-31 | AMZN | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Amazon has nearly doubled its AWS capital expenditures year-over-year, deploying a staggering $64.8 billion into AWS infrastructure in just nine months. This indicates a historic, unprecedented accele…
|
||
| 2025-10-30 | GOOG | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Google's 9-month capital expenditures hit $63.6 billion, a massive 66% increase from the $38.2 billion spent in the same period the prior year. The sheer velocity of cash being converted into servers …
|
Outbound Impacts — MU's filings affect these tickers
| Date | Filing | Target | Cat | Dir for target | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | 10-Q | ASML | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-03-19 | 10-Q | LRCX | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2026-03-19 | 10-Q | AMAT | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
| 2025-12-18 | 10-Q | 005930.KS | Strategic Shift | ◆ | Legacy import: direction not extracted at source |
Catalysts
| Date | Type | Confidence | Source | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | earnings | confirmed | yfinance | Next earnings (per yfinance) |
| 2026-06-25 | earnings | confirmed | yfinance | Next earnings (per yfinance) |