SMCI Super Micro Computer Inc. WATCHLIST
8 inbound impacts
from 5 source companies
in last 180 days
0
Bullish impacts
1
Bearish impacts
7
Neutral impacts
5
Max significance
0
High-magnitude
Historical Base Rates for SMCI
From prior setups in our DB. Returns are simple price (entry next-day open → close at horizon). Alpha is excess vs benchmark.
| Horizon | N | Hit % | Avg ret | Median ret | α vs SPY | α vs QQQ | α vs SOXX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d | 15 | 33.3% | -1.93% | -4.08% | -1.68% | -1.99% | -4.08% |
| 20d | 15 | 46.7% | +0.45% | -0.71% | -0.3% | -1.35% | -2.97% |
| 60d | 10 | 50.0% | +11.29% | -0.22% | +4.91% | +3.42% | -8.08% |
Top Live Signals affecting SMCI
| Score | Date | Source | Type | Cat | Dir | Conf | Mag | Horiz | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 2026-02-06 | AMZN | 10-K | Future Bet | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Amazon's total capital expenditures exploded to $131.8 billion in 2025, up from $83 billion in 2024. AWS alone added $96.5 billion in net property and equipment in a single year (nearly doubling its 2…
|
||
| 29 | 2026-02-05 | GOOG | 10-K | Future Bet | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
A jaw-dropping $113 billion in short-term (due within 12 months) purchase commitments primarily for servers, networking equipment, and energy. This is on top of the $91.4 billion already spent on CapE…
|
||
| 28 | 2026-02-04 | AMD | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
AMD is moving up the value chain to compete directly with Nvidia's system-level offerings by acquiring rack-scale design capabilities. Crucially, they immediately spun off the low-margin, capital-inte…
|
||
| 20 | 2026-01-28 | MSFT | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Microsoft spent $29.9B on capex in a single quarter -- roughly $120B annualised -- nearly doubling from the prior year. With $261B in net PP&E and another $23B sitting in AP (equipment delivered but n…
|
||
| 17 | 2026-02-06 | SMCI | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 4/5 | medium | 90d |
Working capital strain mutes the FCF story even as revenue grows
Healthy companies don't factor receivables. SMCI signing a Receivables Purchase Agreement with MUFG + Credit Agricole means working capital is being pressured by either (a) extended payment terms gran…
|
| 8 | 2025-11-05 | AMD | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
AMD is aggressively pivoting from selling standalone chips to selling data-center-scale AI systems, mimicking Nvidia's rack-scale strategy (e.g., NVL72). By acquiring ZT Systems for its system design …
|
||
| 7 | 2025-10-31 | AMZN | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Amazon has nearly doubled its AWS capital expenditures year-over-year, deploying a staggering $64.8 billion into AWS infrastructure in just nine months. This indicates a historic, unprecedented accele…
|
||
| 7 | 2025-10-29 | MSFT | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | — |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Microsoft is utilizing its massive balance sheet to act as a pseudo-bank for its hardware supply chain, advancing cash or credit to secure server components (likely GPUs and AI networking gear). The s…
|
All Inbound Impacts (8)
Every signal pointing at SMCI from another company's filings.
| Date | From | Filing | Cat | Dir | Conf | Mag | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | SMCI | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ▼ | 4/5 | medium |
Working capital strain mutes the FCF story even as revenue grows
Healthy companies don't factor receivables. SMCI signing a Receivables Purchase Agreement with MUFG + Credit Agricole means working capital is being pressured by either (a) extended payment terms gran…
|
| 2026-02-06 | AMZN | 10-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Amazon's total capital expenditures exploded to $131.8 billion in 2025, up from $83 billion in 2024. AWS alone added $96.5 billion in net property and equipment in a single year (nearly doubling its 2…
|
||
| 2026-02-05 | GOOG | 10-K | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
A jaw-dropping $113 billion in short-term (due within 12 months) purchase commitments primarily for servers, networking equipment, and energy. This is on top of the $91.4 billion already spent on CapE…
|
||
| 2026-02-04 | AMD | 10-K | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
AMD is moving up the value chain to compete directly with Nvidia's system-level offerings by acquiring rack-scale design capabilities. Crucially, they immediately spun off the low-margin, capital-inte…
|
||
| 2026-01-28 | MSFT | 10-Q | Strategic Shift | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Microsoft spent $29.9B on capex in a single quarter -- roughly $120B annualised -- nearly doubling from the prior year. With $261B in net PP&E and another $23B sitting in AP (equipment delivered but n…
|
||
| 2025-11-05 | AMD | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
AMD is aggressively pivoting from selling standalone chips to selling data-center-scale AI systems, mimicking Nvidia's rack-scale strategy (e.g., NVL72). By acquiring ZT Systems for its system design …
|
||
| 2025-10-31 | AMZN | 10-Q | Future Bet | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Amazon has nearly doubled its AWS capital expenditures year-over-year, deploying a staggering $64.8 billion into AWS infrastructure in just nine months. This indicates a historic, unprecedented accele…
|
||
| 2025-10-29 | MSFT | 10-Q | Asymmetric Info | ◆ |
Legacy import: direction not extracted at source
Microsoft is utilizing its massive balance sheet to act as a pseudo-bank for its hardware supply chain, advancing cash or credit to secure server components (likely GPUs and AI networking gear). The s…
|
Outbound Impacts — SMCI's filings affect these tickers
| Date | Filing | Target | Cat | Dir for target | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | 10-Q | DELL | Asymmetric Info | ◆ | Dell's larger balance sheet handles same dynamic better — relative winner if SMCI stumbles |
Catalysts
| Date | Type | Confidence | Source | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | earnings | confirmed | yfinance | Next earnings (per yfinance) |
| 2026-05-06 | earnings | confirmed | yfinance | Next earnings (per yfinance) |